Friday, September 21, 2007

美元俱樂部或少一員

望著恒指不斷破位,手上無貨的朋友恨得牙癢癢,錯失先機的心情可以理解,但以為24,000點已見頂,不敢入市,怎知現在大踏步走向26,000點,相距只有299點,奈何見頂陰影浮現,入市就更加怕怕,驚高位接貨後,慘變應市「大閘蟹」,大家的情緒相信都是忐忑不安。


這時候,恒基地產(012)主席李兆基話睇28,000點,賭王何鴻燊預測見30,000點,反映他們對後市看好,而且比專業分析員的預測不相伯仲,至於如何計算,與及背後有否軍師教路就不得而知,但已叫人陷於矛盾之中,究竟應否跟隨呢?


近期傳媒訪問那些散戶,多是且戰且退,有錢賺即沽貨,即走超短線也,但大家天天上班,怎可荒廢寶貴的工作去睇市。不過,禤中怡一直建議投資增值才是理財之道,否則放在紅簿仔戶口,利息收入難應付日後所需,而投資前,應先要知道自己的實力,才可享受投資的樂趣,並非純粹聽大戶講的就去做。


就像美國減息,全球銀行也不一定要死跟,畢竟個別地區有其獨特情況,且看台灣剛公布第13次加息,因為物價居高不下,第二季資金外流嚴重,國際原油屢創新高,均對台灣的通脹構成壓力,加上台灣與其他地區的利息差距還是不小,故決定加息0.125厘,拉近與其他外幣的息差,希望資金回流,擺明同美國對著幹。至於美國好朋友沙特阿拉伯(Saudi Arabia)竟也拒絕跟隨減息,惹起這個中東國家將脫離「美元掛鈎俱樂部」的憂慮,擔心美元作為國際貨幣的中流砥柱地位受損,屆時屬於俱樂部會員之一的港元,兌其他貨幣豈不也遭殃?


原來沙特阿拉伯也有苦衷,因為外資不斷流入,減息只會進一步放寬銀根,而與美元掛鈎,由於匯價下跌,入口產品價格自然向上,故已令通脹上升4%,所以這種金融政策對該國經濟構成負累。


不要小看這個石油王國的舉動,因為他們最支持美國,坐擁的資金屬天文數字,估計區內管理的資金達3.5萬億美元(約27.3萬億港元),雖然不知道當中有多少屬美元資產,倘一旦與美元脫鈎,沙特阿拉伯就可以調撥部分資源,投向其他貨幣,而較早前中東兩個國家科威特和敘利亞,已把其貨幣與美元脫鈎。面對這個場面,可見美元不再吃香,如果其他美元掛鈎俱樂部成員紛紛跟隨,美元危矣。


其實,維持強美元政策一向是布殊總統的財政大臣保爾森掛在咀邊的口號,奈何今日連美元債券也乏人問津,像7月數據顯示,買入債券總值由790億美元(約6,162億港元)大降至190億美元(約1,482億港元)。一個月數字雖然難以論英雄,但對美國政政來說,恐怕警號確實已響起,加上今次聯儲局主席伯南克以快狠準的方式大減半厘息,反映其他高息貨幣更具吸引力,資金只會向回報高的地方走,而美國目前唯一保命的就是股市,讓資金覺得仍有增值空間,但如果股市調整較多,後市會否變驚慄戰場?


至於港元與美元掛鈎的匯率政策屆時可能又再受考驗。雖然港元跟美元貶值,無疑可吸引外來資金流入,如購買房地產和股票等,兼且遊客使錢的感覺也開心得多,但入口價格增加續帶動通脹向上,市民生活質素受影響。


你估在負利率環環下,人人都可以用買股票買樓去保值的嗎?而且兩種投資產品價格上升周期一旦結束,後果有多嚴重呢?


(9月21日刊於《am730》)

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