Tuesday, October 02, 2007

秋風起淡風嚟?

港股國慶假期休市,大家齊齊睇煙花去也,一片歌舞昇平的景象。


不過,上周重量級投資銀行摩根士丹利(或稱「大摩」)的亞洲區主席羅奇(StephenRoach)坐暖這個新職位後,開始對亞洲區市場發表評論。佢話亞洲區股市,尤其大中華區股市升至目前水平,顯示市場對未來數年經濟前景過分樂觀,忽視美國次按問題所構成的影響,料區內股市早晚會出現調整,但無預測何時會結束升勢。


作為大行負責人,言論不能忽視,他所持的理據就是,亞洲經濟面對的最大風險,就是美國消費需求放緩,影響區內出口表現,尤其是美國消費增長,隨著當地樓價有機會在明年持續下跌,將減少再融資機會,削弱美國人消費力,更估計美國經濟有一半機會出現衰退,屆時對出口產品的需求自然下降。他更預期,中國經濟增長有機會由現時11%,放緩至8%至8.5%水平,皆因美國需求下跌影響,更可能於08年北京奧運前就反映出來。羅奇的意見不無道理,畢竟美國人靠借貸支持,一旦失去融資能力,消費能力自然被削弱,還會買「Made in China」的貨物嗎?


不過,區內股市累創新高,好像不用理會美國次按的風險。香港股市趁假期唞一日,亞洲其他股市卻繼續造好,新加坡股市創新高,南韓綜合指數又迫近2,000點關口。禤中怡一向指該問題像針一樣,偶然會出來「拮一拮」,添負面因素,但就算《信報》的前輩曹仁超上周都話:「雖然美國房地產走下坡,但亞洲新興、東歐新興市場、環球新興市場資本家毫不關心,因為對佢哋影響唔大。」


話雖全球邁向一體化,大家好像血脈相連,但尤記得97年亞洲金融風暴爆發,人人面對困境,揸樓揸股均無好日子過,偏偏那時美國經濟好,更踏入加息周期以壓抑經濟,可見處境不同。


為甚麼今天同樣會出現背馳情況呢?從經濟層面上看,似乎亞洲市場依然生機處處,發展仍壯旺。相信內地,甚至區內經濟藉內需及亞洲區之間的貿易活動帶動有關,像澳洲經濟佳,因為內地對資源產品需求大增,澳洲礦產資源股份業績自然差不到那裡,股價就反映出來了,而一些新興市場如印尼等,何嘗不是受惠這個因素呢?


至於上周提到中東富國開始重新審視投資美元資產的策略,包括沙特阿拉伯可能研究將當地貨幣與美元脫鈎,均反映其資金也要找出路,而亞洲可能是其中一個落腳點,成為資金來源之一,君不見他們來港認購新股、持有滙控(005)等「大製作」嗎?


羅奇大師的預警言論,無疑為大家提供一個時刻警惕的訊號,但禤中怡仍堅持看清趨勢更重要。


(10月2日刊於《am730》)

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