Monday, October 08, 2007

全民皆股……

如果不說全民皆股,相信恐難服眾。禤中怡昨日看港台長青電視節目「城市論壇」,赫然發現談論的題目是:「股市高處不勝寒?有否泡沫需慎防!」


該節目一向就每周廣受社會人士關注的論題,讓市民發表意見,但港股屢創新高,兼且上落波動加劇,今次連官台都拿出來當民生題目去傾,就認真少有。該集嘉賓有香港理工大學會計及金融學院副教授劉佩瓊、香港城市大學管理科學系副教授曾淵滄及交通銀行首席經濟及策略師羅家聰。以陣容而言,有學術、宏觀經濟分析,兼且曾淵滄半學術及半財經演員的身份,評論相信夠平衡,要拿號碼貼士恐怕欠奉,但要分散投資,小心謹慎的警告字句,則不妨多聽。


翻查資料,該節目近一年多來,有觸及股市的題目,完全未見,最多是兩鐵合併、票價如何訂,和領匯(823)租務 起紛爭,責任和盈利怎平衡,勉強算是同股市略有關係,但仍然以民生為主,而今次開宗明義談港股,或多或少可反映大市熱潮澎拜之勢,已經滲入各階層,這個又算不算是一個散戶大舉接貨的見頂訊號呢?


不過,有時投資非出於自願,因為禤中怡近期粗略計算,近兩個月以來,原來已經有最少8間上市公司向股東提出「伸手」拿錢的供股建議,與藍籌股升極未停比較,投資這些股份可謂未見官先打五十大板。因為供股集資,多以較收市價有一定折讓幅度為供股價,對股價難免有壓力,股民心裡自然不是味兒。


在8月中左右,新澤控股(095)每8股供3股,而在9月初,Prime Investments(721)提出1股供5股集資2億元,用作在內地發展商機。每股供股價0.101元,較當時停牌日每股0.75元,有86.53%折讓。之後,首富(204)和漢傳媒(491)均為1股供2股、百利保(617)每20股供7股、時富金融(8122)就5供2,而天安中國(028)則建議每5股供1股。


上市公司選擇供股,而非選擇配售新股,可能是讓股東有選擇(還記得股壇長毛要求先讓舊股東有權認購新股的權利嗎?),不過,有些供股價折讓幅度驚人,如天安供股價為6元,較公布供股前股價折讓達36.8%,表面上讓舊股東享有較大折扣去繼續支持公司發展,但如果採用配售新股形式進行集資的話,折讓幅度也有這麼大嗎?以較大折讓幅度去供股,豈不是價值被貶低?


當然,有些公司的吸引力或不大,集資可能不易,加上公司大股東實力夠,供股相信是籌錢理想途徑之一,但有否考慮大折讓問題呢?此外,供股可能是大股東看好後市的肥水不流別人田的隱喻策略,讓各股東進一步分享公司未來的成果,但請先付入場費等開場才知內容。


(10月8日刊於《am730》)

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