Wednesday, October 03, 2007

細價股出頭天

藍籌股同國企股表現大勇,股價拾級而上,但禤中怡問身邊好友,持貨獲利者實屬有限,因為今次大戶、基金和機構投資者構建的港股歷史高台,根本非一般投資者所能參與。


儘管港股交投驚人,單日逾1,600億元,但粗略計算,扣除藍籌、國企指數成分股和窩輪成交後,其他股份成交額並非突出。由於7隻國企指數成分股同為大藍籌,故剔除重複計算的成交額後,料其他非該兩個指數成分股的上市公司成交額才約368億元,可見追捧的股份數目並非全面。市場焦點明顯集中在藍籌和大型國企股身上,可惜這類股份入場費奇高,試問散戶怎樣輕鬆挪用數十萬元撲入,分享經濟成果呢?


禤中怡同證券行高層談起,他也說近期大價股當道,細價股根本炒不起,況且散戶手上被綁的蟹貨尚未鬆綁,無法調撥資源,跟勢炒焦點股,而且每手投資額高,所以眼巴巴望著大市向上,束手無策。


傳統智慧告之,當藍籌股升至㷫烚烚之際,自然有專業人士走出來會話,一些二線股估值相對落後,然後將戰線蔓延開去。證券行高層亦話,聽聞月底二三線股會轉旺,值得留意消息股,近期已略見一些股份出現異動,是耶非耶,just wait and see。


昨日見明日國際(760)升89%,成升幅最大股份,收市見0.89元,成交額亦有逾5,000萬元配合。亞太資源(1104)亦破1元,收報1.21元,有27%升幅,算不俗,成交金額也超過1.35億元。


另一個指標就是,即使被股壇長毛質疑帳目的聯洲國際(048),亦獲白武士出來相救,他就是細劉(即劉鑾鴻)負責的利福國際(1212),包括向聯洲提供3億元過渡性貸款,並有意參與其財務重整,如收購大股東所持聯洲29.67%股權及斥8.8億元認購其可換股債券等。


最有趣的是,聯洲大股東出售股權所得資金,原來將用作向聯洲收購一批應收帳組合,但組合內所涉金額,是否就是核數師曾質疑,收回存在相當不明朗的應收帳,仍有待考究。此外,聯洲又話可能會為一些收回有不明朗的應收帳作出撥備,所以將公布的業績甚至可能出現虧損。


以大細劉過去無寶不落的眼光,單是買入銅鑼灣崇光百貨已展露財技身手,相信聯洲為應收帳做撥備,其大股東又接手一批應收帳,可見細劉入主前,先將隻聯洲「變乾淨」,然後讓公司可以再次輕裝上路。


這場尋寶遊戲是否全面開始就未知,但現時有人肯接貨,反映二三線股有出頭的一天,否則那些大戶如何將火棒交給散戶再接貨呢?


(10月3日刊於《am730》)

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