Wednesday, October 10, 2007

恩情不及黨大

禤中怡近期在朋輩友儕間,發現一個現象,就是賓架好友們、好一部分已經開始為今年的工作成果埋單計數,一些大行更已放風表示會發放數以十多個月計的年終花紅,相信今年中環街頭不知又會增加幾多千萬富翁。


瘋狂從來是不用講理由的,看看近期股市「飛天遁地」式的上上落落,賓架們大都自言也不能解釋過來,最尷尬者還是與客戶談論投資意見時,說升又怕風險大,說跌又犯上升市莫估頂的硬道理,禤中怡遇上這些情況,便唯有講出賓架們大都不會認同的投資方向——需要時間睇定啲!


其實我真是對後市十分迷惘,而這種迷惘的原因其實十分簡單,就是無知。七十年代的港股運作模式,就猶如「塘水滾塘魚」格局,以本地資金為主導,市場消息流傳程度相較現在為低,外國投資者參與也只限於一些一線股份而已。


踏入上世紀末,情況開始逆轉,外資大鱷成為搞局人士,對市場主導地位之高,可從曾特首於上世紀主持的打大鱷干預市場行為可見一斑。


但今時今日,股市的參與者複雜程度可謂前所未見,內地自改革開放以來積壓的龐大資金洪流,在一瞬間向著南方的香港湧過來,甚麼基本因素、市盈率、投資回報、股東回報率等全部成為無聊的數據。


現下,你問我市場走勢,我的答案是,現在市場的運作模式是沒有先例可循的,內地資金幾時來、幾時走,也不是香港賓架能夠預測的,正如閣下看看澳門賭場內的內地賭客之陣容,你就會明白何為「天大地大,不及黨的恩情大」。


試看近期恒指走勢,就知道市場之兇險,昨日又上演先跌200多點至27,500點附近,但有力回升,午後復市更愈升愈有,最後反底上揚457點收市,不但收復前日的失地,兼重越28,000點,可見倉底有力,但是否大戶在高位派貨,又要多觀察。


不過,昨日以為造淡倉無問題的話,恐怕吃了一記悶棍,皆因連續兩日「表演」單日轉向,殺個措手不及,現貨月期指高低位更高達883點之多,對喜歡即日鮮的炒家來說,認真好炒!


有證券界朋友更話,今時今日如果沒有上千點波幅的籌碼,實在不宜落場,因為隨時被人「摑完左邊,打右邊」,造好造淡,都因實力不夠,不能忍到底,慘遭斬倉止蝕,以為掉頭做對家跟風,卻又來個單日轉向,最終造任何一邊都輸錢,彈藥逐步被消耗,還要一日內被打靶,試問怎會不成大鱷點心。


(10月10日刊於《am730》)

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