Monday, October 22, 2007

黑色星期一重臨

好像20年股災夢魘尚未消除。由於87股災當日(8月19日)為周一,上周五(19日)率先令亞洲股市差不多全線飄紅,美股跟隨遭「大插」後,大家又開始憂慮「黑色星期一」,像宿命一樣,再次重臨,讓新一代股神嘗嘗這個慘痛經歷。


話雖港股上周五適逢假期,避過一劫,但恐怕今日開市,恒指顯著向下無走雞,究竟會跌多少已無從估計,因為近期上落波幅頗大,即使是1,600點也屬等閒,如何力頂也是杯水車薪,「空降」部隊必然趁勢出擊,預料近期積極湧入的中資水喉,相信也要先避避風頭,讓外資發威一次,至於上周四膽色過人,做定隔夜淡倉盤的大戶,可望又撈一大筆。


美股大幅下挫,市場又找「死因」,有評論歸咎於部分大企業的季度業績差、油價高企和美元匯價疲弱所致,而本周美股仍有不明朗因素困擾,如美國運通、波音、AT&T和微軟等將公布季度業績,一旦數字稍為較預期為低,肯定再觸動市場神經,再拋售大批股票,先行套現為上,那麼環球股市也要同聲一跌。


只要市場信心轉淡,多多錢也難頂得住,所以淡友紛紛出動,「唱衰」股市,首先話股市上揚幅度已相當大,如MSCI全球股市指數已升14%,而在過去4個年頭中,有3年的一年升幅就有雙位數字,而不包括日本股市的MSCI亞太指數,原來今年以來亦已累升40%,而自02年底以來,該指數更已錄得2.6倍的增幅!


難得有威威機會,自然還要翻舊帳,有專家形容美國次按風暴就是最大的「借貸泡沫」,因為對沖基金和投資銀行利用次級按揭的抵押品再包裝,然後套現,但當這些東西不再值錢,問題便出來,而過去經歷的「新興市場泡沫」、「科網泡沫」等,何嘗不是以類似模式,將資產無端膨脹起來,最終卻要爆個天昏地暗?


其實,美國道瓊斯指數自年初至今,仍有約9.8%升幅,納斯達克指數還累積向上14.5%,表現不算突出,會否今次被唱淡而把這個正回報化為烏有,真要看淡友如何發功,而布殊(其實也是由投資賓架出身的保爾森出謀獻策吧!)的救市措施亦值得一看,因為樓市爆破,樓價下跌,股市這個最後據點已不容有失,否則明年總統選舉,反對黨執掌政權就易如反掌。


不過,若果套用這些看淡言論,講升幅,香港如何獨善其身?因為恒指年初至今已累升逾46%,上周還被那些所謂AH股互換「消息」刺激,曾見30,000點,而國企股指數更有近90%的累積增幅,要是泡沫爆過來,豈不是有大量下跌空間?


(10月22日刊於《am730》)

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