Thursday, October 25, 2007

百倍PE冇有怕

大市早段企在高位不墮,更差點又破30,000點,讓大家開心一下,可惜掉頭向下,最後更反為報跌收市,雖然只跌43點,的確是微不足道,但看到全日上落也有逾600點,爭持之勢認真激烈,但隱約聞到好友撤退味道。日前講反彈後調整仍有一定機會,留意。


近期最熱門話題,非那個與「40大盜」有關的故事,即阿里巴巴(1688)招股也,禤中怡身邊不少朋友不斷追問,應否入飛抽兩手,甚至有朋友話要買「阿拉斯加」,令人苦笑,簡直與當年科網熱潮盲目投資一樣。


今時不同往日,想魚目混珠,蒙混過關再不容易,故禤中怡也花點時間,打開那本橙色封面的招股書看看。大家最關注的,相信非該股的超高市盈率(PE),以招股價上限計,市盈率即達106.3倍,數字的確嚇人。簡單來說,若以港元與人民幣匯率相同,該數字代表以現價入市,而假設公司每年每股盈利不變,公司需花超過100年,累積所賺每股盈利才等於投資成本也。


這種數字遊戲很好玩,但若果看看另一隻內地科網股百度的股價表現,原來市盈率已破200倍。話雖兩間公司業務性質有點不同,但對那些外資大戶來說,始終有參考作用。此外,市盈率的計算中,記住每股盈利也是可變的。從生意上看,相信無人會懷疑其前景,就是提供連接中國和國際市場的渠道,可謂今日配對生意的最佳媒人,且看註冊用戶持續增加,儘管有入有出,流失定必存在,最重要的是能否維持淨增長外,就是留下來的客戶是否樂於消費,是不是有種流動電話市場的生態模式呢?


此外,該公司的高市盈率乃按今年全年賺不少於6.2億元(人民幣,下同)計算,而上半年已賺2.95億元,接近預測盈利的47%,下半年要多賺3億多元,除了生意要持續增長外,另一個可變元素就是「銷售及市場推廣費用」,單是去年便達6.1億元,而今年上半年亦花了3億元,倘上市後知名度大增,更多人知道其存在,是否預見這筆費用又可減少,反映仍然具備提升盈利表現的空間呢?


較有趣的是,市場估計該股凍結資金或達3,000億港元,假設好夢成真,那筆巨款放入銀行,相信也有10日時間收息,之後才把未能分配股份的認購金額,退回給投資者,而以收取年息4厘計,該段期間的利息收入便已經是超過逾3億港元,就算真的是下半年不做生意,也能夠達到全年盈利預測目標!


更重要的是,當公司有一定客戶規模時,對手加入競爭的門檻(Entry Barrier)勢必進一步提高,可能要用更高收購客戶成本,實非容易。當然,逢抽新股必賺已非絕對(還記得大昌行(1828)仍沉底近16%!),做多點功課吧!


(10月25日刊於《am730》)

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