Monday, November 05, 2007

沒有冧巴的分析

溫總開聲叫停「港股直通車」、巴基斯坦政局不穩,加上美國次按尾大不掉,港股掉頭向下恐怕必成淡友炒作最佳借口,即使恒指再跌千點也非奇事,相信大家早有心理準備吧!


早前已提及「港股直通車」,一日未落實,始終給予市場一個概念去炒,話雖溫總出口,但這個概念未完,日後仍可視為大戶造好理由,而資金續留在內地,或許給予內地股市新一輪升浪添動力,屆時A股股價升,H股股價則跌,AH股之間的差價會否又再擴大呢?


至於溫總揀此時此刻開聲叫停,無疑為香港熱哄哄的市場,提供冷卻作用。由於港元實施聯繫匯率制度,美元減息和匯價轉弱已對香港經濟產生副作用,試問本地利率跟住減,幣值又無得像其他亞洲貨幣般上升,投資者自然懂得入市搶貨,若加入「港股直通車」那條水喉,真的「覆水難收」,股市樓市不升至曉飛才怪。


不過,溫總幫手,那些炒賣港元升值熱錢會否退出,繼而把資金從股市抽離兼離開,就屬未知之數,但最基本的是,對港元需求因溫總出口術,加上阿里巴巴(1688)凍結資金陸續回籠,港匯可望因此而回落,炒港元升值那些大鱷恐怕要忍一忍手了。


這個周末除了看溫總叫停港股直通車外,節目亦挺多,因為走去吸收知識也。第一站去灣仔書節,走入人叢中忙了一陣子,有些風險投資和管理的書籍才10元一本,掃了一批,算是廉價知識。


草草午飯,禤中怡拿著門票,又轉往金鐘五星級酒店聽《am730》的免費投資講座。一聽之下,頗合禤中怡的「口味」,因為並非「冧巴」show,沒有號碼和目標價,對一些散戶而言無疑是失望極了,但更喜歡了解他們看「趨勢」。看清趨勢一向是禤中怡推崇的投資策略。因為連前路是甚麼都不知道,又怎知自己跑往哪裡,豈不是亂打亂撞?


有保險公司和基金公司代表講解投資趨勢,不約而同地看好亞洲新興股市,原因不外乎企業盈利增長佳,市盈率未算過份等。至於中原地產老闆施永青更是無冷場,而話題當然以樓為主,他提出負利率情況,將引發資產價值向上的觀點,與禤中怡不謀而合(叨點光而已!),更重要的是,他預測樓價將上升,幅度更可能不小。


無疑施先生做地產代理生意,他話看好樓市,自然有人陰謀論地認為想幫自己的生意推多一把,所以我也建議大家多加分析,兼且正如施先生指,錢屬於你自己的,自己應該負責,所以要「活到老,學到老」,多了解才不至落後於人。


(11月5日刊於《am730》)

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