Friday, November 09, 2007

四叔醒定超人叻

日圓匯價上升,即時聯想起日圓套息交易拆倉盤又湧現,大戶必然要拋售股份套現,應付平倉所需,否則單是匯價已虧蝕不少,難怪港股和其他亞洲區股市齊齊無運行,這就是牽一髮而動全身的結果。

恒指再跌近千點,一點也不奇,且看前日尾市上升乏力,可能有人已在高位派貨。最厲害的非李超人莫屬,早前沽出中國遠洋(1919)股份後,原來月初又減持南方航空(1055)247.2萬股,每股平均價10.968元,取回逾2,711萬元,而該股昨日收市報8.67元,即較超人沽售價跌兩成。

這不特止,他同日又用每股10.159元賣2,781萬股中海集運(2866),套現超過2.82億元。昨日中海集運收市價是多少呢?答案是8.62元,意味早賣一點,相差的金額就近4,300萬元!超人功力,無得比。

至於香港股神四叔(恒基地產(012)主席李兆基也)更厲害,旗下恒地加碼向恒基發展(097)購煤氣(003),幫助煤氣成為逆市大升的藍籌股,一口氣急彈4.34%,見21.6元收市,距離全日高位21.8元不遠,但已創歷史新高。單是上午收市前,已有1球貨在21.53元成交,鎖定在高位收市。

午後大市續挫,煤氣卻韌力甚強,雖然有壓力,大戶卻在21.58元掃入1球股票,不讓股價下墮,最重要的是,尾市竟出現一宗高達3,456萬元大手交易,有大戶以21.6元買入160萬股,究竟用心何在?

恒地選擇在恒發臨開股東會,舉手批准出售煤氣交易之際突加注碼,將現金部分由原每股恒發股東獲1.21元增至2.24元,初看以為增85%,認真著數,但記住單deal還包括有恒地股份,即每股收購價其實是19.4元,增幅僅7%。

不過,恒基發展於10月中向股東發出的函件中指,無論董事會及獨立財務顧問聯昌國際證券均認為舊收購方案對股東合理,更建議投贊成票,但短短十多日間,恒地便加碼,難道市場變化之快,令這些財經高手也估計不到?抑或是煤氣本身隱藏的價值,恒發的管理層看不到,只有恒地發現到,所以才急急加碼?

從理論上,恒地著實要找盈利來源。單看直至6月底,可售住宅單位3,341伙,但見到管理層話過去兩個月已售1,300伙,意味日後可售單位有限,更重要的是,剩餘項目似乎欠缺如嘉亨灣這類龍頭大盤,雖然有些工貿物業可銷售,但貢獻有限,故可以預見未來本港物業發展盈利或存在斷層情況,即使內地物業於08和09兩個年度也僅有650萬方呎樓面落成,意味單是這兩年就要靠原有業務支撐。

面對這個場面,恒地亦要提高收購煤氣勝算,故此恒發小股東不妨主動出擊,希望四叔加多點注碼,可能再有意想不到的收穫也說不定。

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