Thursday, November 08, 2007

美元套息交易

一如所料,阿里巴巴(1688)資金解凍,不代表有大量「生錢」流入,恒指雖一度破3萬點,最終未能企穩,只能在29,708點收市。

內地保險資金將「殺到」,而恒指加入3隻增長股,可能又醞釀新一輪升浪,不過先炒消息前,外圍環境可能左右大局,皆因油金匯齊鳴,話雖上升多時,畢竟快觸及歷史高位,大家就要多加留神,因為對股市影響非細也。

不過,中港兩地政府早前澄清,沒有就港元脫鈎問題進行研究,若果所言屬實,禤中怡真的要向他們當頭棒喝!連負責處理內地外匯儲備的頭頭都話要分散投資,意味可能要減持美元,如果不採取實事求是的態度,研究聯匯制度究竟對香港甚至內地經濟的影響,香港人拿著的港紙就認真凍過水了。

當然,否認商討屬例湯例水,旨在穩定軍心,若果證實正研究的話,相信香港股市又再被炒得翻天覆地,但宏觀市場有變化,就要認真考慮對策,即使最終不脫鈎,維持現狀,亦要有應對方法,才算是真正父母官!

美元弱勢已被各財經專家多次提及,原因不外乎美國本土經濟弱、息口下降、對美元需求減少等。外在因素是亞洲經濟環境好,油價金價持續向上,令美元匯價續積弱。

禤中怡忽發奇想,以前大家講套息交易(carry trade),相信多是借日圓,然後投資其他地區市場,因為日圓匯價被看淡,投資者希望現在借日圓,日後將外幣兌換回日圓時,如日圓匯價進一步回落,在匯價差額上更有機會賺多一筆,兼且日圓息率低無可低,投資成本亦相對較低,贏面自然較高。

好了,美元匯價現在愈跌愈深,倘若轉去沽空美元,會否為投資者建立新一條財路呢?因為除了中國外,相信世界其他國家的中央銀行也會研究現時所持美元佔整個外匯儲備的比重,如果大家同一條心,你減我又沽美元,肯定為美元匯價再添壓力。

禤中怡重申,並非鼓勵大家利用這種方式投資,畢竟有一定風險,而且大家將手上港元用作購買海外基金時,已經變相看淡美元了,但利用借貸去擴大自己的投資組合,則需考慮清楚其風險。

不過,大戶手上彈藥足,兼且懂得玩衍生工具,你估那麼聰明的專業人士會不會想不到這種投資策略呢?此外,部分石油國家早前已將其貨幣與美元脫鈎,即使不脫鈎,其他中東國家的財金領導人,恐怕也會買入其他非美元資產,以保護其資產免被蠶食,反映美元難再吃香。

對香港經濟而言,唯一好處可能是港人留港消費,而外國遊客則湧來港旅行,刺激內需,但通脹怎解決呢?

9 Comments:

At 11:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

中港兩地政府早前澄清,沒有就港元脫鈎問題進行研究
可能只有就港元與美元脫鈎,沒有全面脫鈎

 
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