Monday, November 19, 2007

鄧普頓試水

之前講內地抽緊銀根,擔心內地來港炒股資金被趕走,原來祖國是正當和非法炒港股的資金也一律不放過,實行一網打盡。由於缺少北水南來,港股成交縮減屬意料之內,但單日成交額要跌穿1,000億元,相信不容易,因為單是窩輪成交於上周四和周五均逾410億元,佔大市比例逾29.67%及34%,但並非單純因整體成交額減少才令基數縮小,而是窩輪成交金額確有上升,因為上周一,窩輪成交額只有近340億元而已。


為甚麼窩輪成交大增?相信以這個數目上升速度來看,當中散戶所佔份兒當然非輕,禤中怡估計內地資金炒賣這些投機成分極高的投資工具機會亦很大,由於涉及資金龐大,當市場有任何風吹草動的話,難免即時出現反應,內地大戶之前投入大筆資金,當中央揭破非法資金渠道後,這些大戶不管輸贏都要立刻抽身而退,而今次斬倉盤令到多少祖國資金被蒸發掉,恐怕非小數目,這亦是香港靈活優勝之處,資金容易流動,但亦造就大市波動擴大情況。


現在趁大市調整,就可能輪到合法資金、即QDII入場,因為之前股價相對較高,溫總叫停港股直通車,再配合外匯管理局打擊,QDII資金便可低位買貨,日後回報有所提升,果然有一手。


雖然上周恒指交易區域已降至27,000至29,250點之間,而且內地炒股資金將有所收斂,但喜歡短炒的朋友卻相信樂於見到這個場面,因為非走單邊市,有波動就有機會,單是炒上落就可能有斬獲。至於短炒窩輪又如何?同樣那句:若果不能安坐股票機前「睇實」,兼且有承擔高風險的能力,禤中怡還是勸大家:有些錢是不能賺的!


但對大戶來說,大市向下或許提供投資機會。禤中怡見到創業板公司竟受大戶青睞,但並非名不經傳的機構投資者,而是剛沽售中國石化(386)股份,套現逾16億元的鄧普頓資產管理(Templeton Asset Management Limited)也!


這個由著名投資專家麥樸思(Mark Mobius)主理的基金,用每股1.63元認購元征科技(8196)共4,560萬股新H股,涉資才不過7,432.8萬元,佔該公司擴大後股本亦僅7.55%股權,可謂濕碎得不得了。有趣的是,該基金所持創業板股份實在少之又少,仍持有的只有同仁堂科技(8069)約4.33%股權而已。鄧普頓的確是無寶不落,入股元征科技作價已較停牌前股價折讓約15.1%,即使股價下跌,與入市價仍有一段「安全」距離,對其他股東而言,大折讓作價或對正股有壓力,但換來大品牌基金持有,而且作價較每股資產淨值有高達兩倍溢價,算是有安慰獎。


雖則只是一宗交易,但創業板股份也受基金認同,這種趨勢會否延續就要留意,或許可提供新投資機會。


(11月19日刊於《am730》)

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