Wednesday, November 21, 2007

財富效應面面觀

繼8月17日的大奇蹟日後,港股再度展現強勁力量,恒指由低位一度回升達1,447點,將淡友殺個措手不及外,兼且反漲逾1%至27,771點。


話雖現貨月期指收市報27,445點,即較現貨收市低達326點,從數字上看,期指低水代表後市仍存隱憂,但需注意的是,當港股收市前幾分鐘,現貨月期指才由高位27,747點回落,但港股於4時收市後,期貨交易時段未完結,現貨月期指在尾段15分鐘內急插約200點,而且今日是滙豐控股(005)第三季股息除淨的日子,股價需調整,令恒指輕微向下,大戶會否製造一個後市續跌的虛假景象呢?


當然,市場傳美國提早減息最具支持力度外,溫總話深圳的銀行勒緊客戶提款不當亦已提供造好藉口,代表「生水」又重新可投入港股也,這種政策市真的估也估不到。


當然,一般投資者也是買股票為主,即公司股價上升,獲利自然增加,畢竟買淡的相對較少,所以股市向好,開心的人應會較多,因為財富效應帶來快樂的感覺,並演化成消費動力。究竟有幾好?禤中怡與於工業邨內一間公司上班的朋友閒聊,佢話近期突然有多名同事向人事部申請,希望租用車位,原來他們都已買了汽車,當然,新車或二手車所佔比例就不得而知,最重要的是,他們的口袋裡似乎多了點錢,樂於改善自己的生活。


朋友估計,部分同事參與股票買賣,而過去港股屢創新高,只要不勇進,頂位闖入,要有斬獲相信不難,而這筆小財富可以提升享受。由於公司車位採用先到先得制,朋友一向用車代步,故暫未需「迫遷」,但已見識到財富增值的威力。


究竟香港人因股市而產生的財富效應,對市場影響又有多大,著名學府會否研究研究?不過,南韓央行(Bank of Korea)最近有份報告,話南韓人從股市中獲利每1億韓圜(約84.28萬港元),使平均每人多消費500萬韓圜(約4.2萬港元),即只拿取約5%回報獎勵自己,可見他們也相當克制,而南韓股市今年表現不俗,應該可繼續增加獲利機會。


相對股市,原來南韓人所持物業每升值1億韓圜,平均多消費200萬韓圜(約1.68萬港元)而已,只敢用2%的利潤,可見股價表現對當地人的財富心理影響較樓市為大。這種情況亦不難解釋,因為樓宇較股票的流動性為低,且傳統以自住為主,即使售出單位獲利,亦要物色新居所,而與投資股票則不同,有盈利便可出售,完全不用講感情。當然,講明是研究報告,南韓家庭負債處高水平,及薪金增長緩慢,亦會對消費意欲構成影響。就算投資有斬獲,風光自然明媚,一日可以反彈千點,但只要失信心,市場也會逆轉大幅向下,財富也有蒸發之時。


(11月21日刊於《am730》)

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