Wednesday, November 28, 2007

中東「黑金」湧不斷

悲情城市雖有本身的苦惱,但當你坐擁巨富,兼且數目仍不斷高速上升時,像中東油國的首腦亦難免會有煩惱,因為油價曾迫近每桶100美元,儘管近期回落,但逾96美元水平對中東國家來說,已有很大盈利空間,而大量「黑金」帶來的財富令他們有足夠能力成為市場大買家。


昨日最矚目的是阿聯酋的投資旗艦The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority入股花旗集團(Citigroup Inc)4.9%股權,因為資金涉及高達75億美元(約585億港元),並講明類似入股銀行和地產發展商的行動陸續有來,可見威力非「港股直通車」可比。


另一項較被香港投資者冷落的,是中東另一間投資公司,即阿聯酋名下的Dubai International Capital(DIC),已表明大舉買入日本Sony的股份,但未有披露詳情,故按照現行條例,股權應不超過5%的需披露水平。不要小看這個股權比例,以Sony市值約500億美元(約3,900億港元)計,即5%股權已涉195億港元!或許有這個「水喉」射住,日本日經平均指數昨日收市反升87點至重越15,000點,多少拜中東資金支持所賜,否則可能要跟隨美股下挫。


這間DIC絕非寂寂無名之輩,早於5月亦已提出掃入滙豐控股(005)股份,市場揣測該批股份或涉5億英鎊(約80億港元),過去DIC已斥10億美元(約78億港元)收購美國對沖基金管理公司Och-Ziff Capital Management Group9.9%股權,並入股歐洲航空防務航天公司(European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co.),甚至是銷售平治汽車的戴姆勒公司(Daimler AG),間間都是地位顯赫的大型跨國企業。


或許會認為中東資金隨便買貨也無相干,反正輸掉後,地底的黑金又會補充過來,但最重要的是,在次按問題引發資金緊絀之際,這個資金來源將為市場注入新動力,可能為未來增長起火車頭作用。


其實,他們入股的決定相信並非真的如此兒戲,應該會進行盡職審查,然後才會作巨額投資,況且投資對象多為大企業,意味投資對象即使進入調整期,經過本身組織自我完善後,定可重拾升軌,不會輕易被拖垮,故藉花旗大撇帳兼風雨飄搖之時,伸出援手,可能除笨有精,而且從政治層面看,布殊政府見到如此捧場,多少也會加分。


經中東「黑金」支持後,是否等如會雨過天清,恐怕仍有一段路要走,且看美國第三季樓價比去年同期跌4.5%,創20年來最大跌幅就知道問題嚴重性,相對第二季時才跌3.3%,可見樓市進一步惡化,而美國經濟組織 Conference of Mayors預測,受次按問題影響,當地361個大城市樓價下滑而令本地生產總值的損失,估計高達1,660億美元(約1.29萬億港元),對經濟打擊非細。


(11月28日刊於《am730》)

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