Tuesday, November 27, 2007

滙控泵水救SIV

美國感恩節假期銷售佳,亞洲股市立刻受外圍推動,恒指更彈升1,085點至接近全日高位收市,報27,626點,即使內地股市跌極都有,但國企股指數毫不理會,掉頭跟外圍上揚5.4%,見16,542點,又出現背馳情況。不過,升得最厲害的卻是一眾中資股,升幅最大的首3隻藍籌股,如中國石化(386)單日抽9.5%至11.3元、招商局國際(144)升9.22%和中國聯通(762)增8.5%,反觀以出口業務為主,相信最受惠感恩節銷售的利豐(494)只增5.8%至30.65元,可見炒賣藉口隨處見。


看看美國人今年的消費表現,總結是花費其實減少了,據全國零售協會(National Retail Federation)統計顯示,感恩節有1.47億購物人流,較去年升4.8%,平均每人消費卻跌3.5%至347.44美元(約2,710港元),但該會醒目地話,與05年的數字比較,則有14.8%升幅。其實,大零售商已預期人均消費減少,故紛提早開門做生意兼減價,希望刺激人流,才覺銷售反應較預期理想,形成「好景」假象。當然,這種薄利多銷策略是否奏效仍需多觀察,但多少反映零售商對市道看淡的睇法。該組織更話今年購物焦點原來是數碼相片播放器和手提電腦等,而去年熱賣的高清電視機恐怕不再成搶手貨,反映消費者轉購價格較低的產品。


市場演繹數據各有不同,但見滙豐控股(005)續出手救其結構投資公司(structured investment vehicles(SIV)),就知道美國次按問題嚴重程度,實在令人擔心蔓延至消費層面。SIV運作模式就是從短期商業票據市場借入資金,然後投資期限較長的證券產品,如按揭債券至銀行貸款也。不過,當SIV無法再把這些商業票據或中期票據全部轉期,就會出現資金周轉困難,唯一方法就是出售資產。


簡單而言,如你借1個月私人貸款買滙控股票,但貸款到期時,股價卻跌穿買入價,又不捨得沽出,惟有再找門路借錢,如無機構肯借錢給你,最終只有蝕讓套現還債。


資產有好有壞,如果連質素較佳資產也出售,可能只有蝕讓離場。滙控今次出手,似乎不想被迫拋售資產,希望有機會改善過來。滙控用自己的商業票據或定期融資去支持SIV獲得資金,恐怕是無辦法之中的辦法,管理層話雖對盈利響不大,但需注意SIV日後會併入滙控資產負債表內,意味要上身,如要減值,滙控資產質素會否受影響呢?


不要以為香港無影響,且看中信國金(183)旗下中信嘉華銀行早前被穆迪調低信貸評級,該集團昨日終解畫,話中信嘉華銀行投資4間SIV公司資本票據,涉共26.5億元。未知是否為穩定市場信心,中信國金話借25億元,然後注入中信嘉華銀行,實行上市公司做back up,而該銀行亦發中期票據集資,美其名為擴充資本,但事實真的如此嗎?


(11月27日刊於《am730》)

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