Tuesday, December 04, 2007

美資行看好名單

禤中怡凌晨見到陳太勝出立法會港島區補選,填補了馬力先生留下的空缺,大有政治進入新一章之感。


港股昨日波幅轉窄,恒指開高收低,但依然挨近29,000點,能否如亞洲股神四叔預測睇30,000點,就要考大戶功力。再看看數據,其實恒指今年以來仍累積上升43.55%,國企股指數更累升近66%,表現實屬不俗,如果基金經理醒目,理應可達標,有花紅落袋也。


至於大行怎看短期和明年大市呢?禤中怡找到美林證券(Merrill Lynch)一份熱辣辣的投資策略報告,發現他們對前景仍樂觀,儘管在過去一個月,恒指已跌了9%,美林卻認為港股從現水平再進一步回落空間已有限。


這間美資大行的理據是,雖然市場已反映本月美國聯儲局減息0.25厘,但因為資金未見流走,兼繼續捧場;而造淡之勢亦料見頂;單在上月21日,沽空盤佔當日成交12.8%,為1998年以來高水平,若淡友維持這個水平的話,恐防挾倉風險增加,美林估計淡友或減少沽空盤。


另一個較利好消息是,即使沒有港股直通車,祖國推出QDII(合資格境內機構投資者)機制後,資金已陸續展開投資,而在亞洲市場物色買貨地點中,港股是較看好的落腳點。不要小看這些資金,QDII可帶來不少複式效應,首先調動資金來港,銀行業必受惠,而買港股就要開證券買賣戶口,以基金一貫操作方法,不會只在1間證券行設戶口,定必採用分散策略,減少依賴單一證券商的風險,那麼證券行多一大筆買賣生意,試問佣金收入怎不水漲船高呢?


從基本因素看,美林預期上市公司業績持續強勁,代表可支持現時市盈率。當然,好戲在後頭,美林預測恒指於明年企在30,000點仍屬合理,但在強勁資金追捧下,有機會見33,000點,似乎同四叔意見可謂英雄所見略同。


當然,美林也提供建議,較看好地產發展股,主因樓價升,這類股份必受惠,而非利息收入增長,令大型銀行股可應付資金成本上漲的負面影響。第三類股份則是綜合企業股,因為股價表現顯然被低估。在藍籌股中尋寶的話,美林較看好長江實業(001)、恒基地產(012)、和記黃埔(013)、新鴻基地產(016)這4隻華資大股,還有地鐵(066)、利豐(494)和中銀(香港)(2388)。較特別的是,藍籌工業股裕元(551)也入圍,莫非該股股價今年累積只升0.2%,後市有得追落後?


至於那些股份較看淡呢?在藍籌中,自不然有滙豐控股(005)的份兒,另一隻就是國泰航空(293)。其他入圍的大型股份有德昌電機(179)、創科實業(669)和嘉里建設(683)。當然,人家做了功課,自己投資時可以多一個選擇考慮,但要兼顧本身的能力,小心投資過度。


(12月4日刊於《am730》)

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