Monday, December 03, 2007

供股有策略

作為一隻藍籌股(blue chip),定必有一定實力及企業管治水平,方可貼上這個稱號,成為恒指一分子。


上周三見到九龍倉(004)首三季業績表現不俗,盈利扣除物業重估這類發水部分,純利實質較去年同期增長30%,集團領導更大口氣地話,準備用600億元在內地大手掃地皮,完全不擔心近期宏調也,畢竟是長線發展嘛!


不過,業績報告已表明,尋求股東額外資本參與,禤中怡已覺有抽水味道,估不到的是,公司直至當晚11時,即上載至港交所(388)網站截止期限最後一刻,才公布有關供股通告,股東隨時漏看。為甚麼業績公布多時後,要延至晚上近凌晨才作披露呢?莫非港交所那一關如此難過?


好了,藍籌股再有供股,禤中怡粗略看看,上一次供股的藍籌股,恐怕是7年前的事了。於2000年10月,電訊盈科(當時還稱為盈科數碼動力)(008)要股東每持股1,000股供30股,每股7.5元,集資96億元,當時為減債而不惜向股東伸手,該經典場面原來可以一再重複。


九倉揀每8股供1股,每股作價30元,集資逾90億元,金額非同小可。其實,禤中怡也覺得採用供股集資,的確可以讓所有股東均可參與公司未來發展,好過以折讓價發行新股予其他投資者,而且今次出師有名,實行大舉進軍內地物業市場,實行變身內房股,估值自然看高一線。

九倉每股供股價30元,比公布供股建議當日股價40.55元,折讓達26%,且比9月底每股資產淨值43.21元折讓達30.5%!大市續炒地產股,九倉股價於上周五更續升至45.9元,表面看,現有股東見到股價水漲船高,當然開心,因為供股價折讓幅度進一步擴大至34.6%,抵供也。但且別開心,因為供股也要睇條款,首先,8供1這個比例,意味要持有8,000股九倉股份,方可供足1手(1,000股),即多拿3萬元捧場,否則只有碎股的話,日後買賣都幾麻煩。


問題是,明明值錢得多的股份,為甚麼供股價無論對比股價,甚至是資產淨值的折讓幅度要有那麼大呢?或許折讓大是為了吸引股東參與供股,但如果覺得公司前景好,無理由如此賤價發行股份,拖低整體平均價值,且股份未來應該更值錢的話,股東定必捧場,如果提高作價,將每股供股價與資產淨值收窄,甚至可以減少發行股份數目,仍然可以達到預期的集資金額,避免大量發行新股。


當然,看看九龍倉母公司會德豐(020)幫手包銷股份,原來一旦其他股東不參與供股,多少可見會德豐及相關人士所持的九倉股權,就可以藉包銷股份而有機會提升了。假如無人接納供股,會德豐持九倉股權,可以由50.06%增至最高約55.61%,變相能夠以低價增持九倉股權,進一步鞏固其控權股東地位,這個策略多高明!


(12月3日刊於《am730》)

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