Wednesday, May 23, 2007

人幣升值中尋寶

國家副總理吳儀見美財長保爾森前送大禮,將人民幣兌美元匯價上落波幅擴大至0.5%,亦幫助匯價加快升值,昨日中間價突破7.67關口後,再破7.66,以7.6551創匯率改革以來新高。今年以來人民幣匯率已連創31次新高,而匯改以來人民幣累計升值幅度已超過5.94%,試問那有一樣如人幣匯價般只升不跌,接近穩賺投資呢?


匯率升,內地資產價格自然水漲船高,深圳控股(604)話用1億元人民幣買安徽地皮80%股權,香港建設(190)又話斥7.6億元人民幣買天津一幅住宅和商業地皮,相信投資房地產交易陸續有來,皆因人民幣逐步成為強勢貨幣,買固定資產投資,日後資產價值上升,套回港元的話,還可賺匯率差價,難怪內地房地產股被看高一線。


或許可找找那些用外幣貸款,但用人民幣做生意的上市公司,可能有意想不到的收穫。例如那些用外幣借貸的內地企業已展現這個優勢,如南方航空(1055)於06年底美元貸款逾31億美元,約241.8億港元,如人民幣匯價升值,意味賺取人民幣後,可兌換更多美元,即還錢能力更強。該股股價昨日升3.3%至4.6元,而今年以來已累升45.5%。


此外,那些用外匯採購物資的內地企業亦可望受惠,如中國電訊企業,因為向外採購電訊設備,若用美元付款的話,實際成本已可從匯價中節省不少。至於工業股則要小心選擇,內地設廠做出口收美元,但成本就用人民幣計,隨時蝕匯價,加上通脹升,或削弱邊際利潤。


用卡要Smart
你有多少張信用卡呢?1張?2張?抑或8張呢?本來數目多寡根本不存在對與錯問題,如何smart地運用信用卡才是關鍵。


在澳洲,今年首季新申請信用卡數目較去年同期下跌7.3%,減少7萬張至88.9萬張,即使比去年第四季亦有2.2%跌幅。據調查機構Veda Advantage統計顯示,這個下跌趨勢已經維持了四個季度,意味銀行想做多點信用卡生意也不易。為甚麼當地經濟不差,信用卡數目不升反降呢?


該機構估計消費者重新注視信用卡的利息問題。原來當地利率單是於06年已加3次息,雖然市場預期6月再加息機會微,因通脹率已見紓緩,但消費者亦是投資者,選擇貸款時,首先也會考慮利息成本問題,故此已懂得選用個人私人貸款(Personal loan)服務。統計顯示,當地個人貸款申請個案,於首季增長7.7%至74.5萬宗,反映消費信貸市場未見萎縮,只是消費者更懂得利用降低成本的方法,意味銀行需轉移戰線,賺取息差相對較低的回報。


其實,信用卡數目一多,有時連自己都數不清,兼且「得物無所用」,且看南韓金融監管機構Financial Supervisory Service(FSS)進行的調查便發現,原來最少有三分一信用卡是閒著不用的。以去年9月底數字顯示,發卡量高達8,640萬張,但未用過的便達2,820萬張!FSS更發現06全年有1,200萬人持有這些只放在銀包內,但根本未有使用的信用卡,這個數目更已連升兩年。或許大家覺得問題不大,反正為了換禮品而申請新卡,換到心頭愛後便可棄置在一角。但統計顯示,單是過去3年,每年南韓信用卡持有人需向銀行及金融機構繳付的信用卡年費便達100億韓圜(約8,438萬港元)。


其實,銀行做生意,尋求的是規模效益,發卡愈多,平均成本可下降,加上已預留資金作撥備,有一日你突然用卡時,銀行便有賺錢機會,最重要的是,只要那張信用卡仍放在銀包內。


(5月23日刊於《am730》)

9 Comments:

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經濟理論話競爭會削減盈利至零, 偏偏銀行仍可收廿多三十厘息。

 
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