Tuesday, May 15, 2007

小心羊群變餓狼

全球股市是否瘋了?港全球股市是否瘋了?港股單日升到「離晒譜」,資金像不問價般湧入,掃貨絕不手軟,究竟是基金驚落後,被迫跟隨大隊,還是炒「TREND」?

甚麼叫做「雞犬皆升」?這個場面昨日大家有幸經歷到,只要不停牌,全線國企股均報升,逾10%升幅的已不算甚麼,只要買國企股就有斬獲,但舉例,重慶鋼鐵(1053)股價一日內升28%,莫非之前分析員看不到其隱藏價值,足以令市場完全改變看法,需要大手吸納嗎?禤中怡承認炒A、H股價差距絕對有賣點,而QDII加入買港股亦是利好消息,但大家不要忘記,這個情況早已屬預料之內,市場亦一直存在這種趨勢,並非無中生有,就如禤中怡可預見中央將加息壓抑貸款增長過快一樣,雖然屬預期之內,奈何又有多少人願意從浸淫在勝利的投資氣氛中走出來呢?相信還須待內地政府出招才會如夢初醒。

好了,成交額大增,是否又要跟羊群追逐呢?雖說人棄我取,但另一種情況就是大家齊心合力造上去,而這個TREND是不能逆行的,否則分分鐘被奔跑中的羊群「踩死」,甚至變身做狼群將你吞噬。

面對這個氣勢如虹的場面,禤中怡認為波浪未沖上岸,加上中國和美國股市在過去一個月齊合奏「升曲」,你破紀錄時,我又創新高,更巧合的是,中國有好消息,美國又有好消息(不是話減息嗎?)對亞洲區股市帶來刺激作用,更已令全球股市皆在升勢之中(還記得禤中怡那篇「亢奮中的投資策略」)。

禤中怡的朋友之前求教所揸二三線資源股又開車,短短數天又升逾30%,再問應否減磅,避免帳面利潤被無情浪沖走,但既已開車,為何中途下車呢?

其實二三線股已展升浪,昨日中國林大(910)成交額逾2.8億元,股價升6.9%至1.08元,交投表現分分鐘媲美大價股。至於隻國新集團(1215)單日更升17.6%至0.3元,成交額亦逾1.84億元,反映各有各炒,莊家散戶齊齊趁勢偷雞做上搵食。不過,有幾隻細價股停牌等「批盪」(即批配抽水也),大家要多加留意。

未有貨的則另當別論,禤中怡仍認為小注用閒錢可跟TREND走,兼定止蝕位,藉此考考眼光,但謹記注意風險,不懂就不要落注。順帶一提,儘管禤中怡並不迷信,但看到無綫電視今日將晚上節目變陣,將收視慘淡的劇集《一生為奴》調到周六、日播映,改由鄭少秋做主持的新節目《謎》頂上後,也想看看今次鄭大俠威風氣勢會否再一次摧毀這個資金市。

楊振耀任無綫收費電視總裁
除此之外,轉工音樂椅未停。TVB(電視廣播,511)旗下無綫收費電視有限公司亦委任楊振耀為新任行政總裁,並將於下周二(22日)生效。楊振耀做媒體工作已逾20年,之前在路訊通(888)為董事總經理助理及署理總經理,最為人熟悉的是於97年在商業電台任職企劃及策略總監。今次加盟無綫收費電視,可謂更上一層樓。

不過,收費電視競爭之激烈已呈白熱化,隨著英格蘭超級足球聯賽由曼聯奪冠後,有線寬頻(1097)亦結束直播權,新一屆電視轉播權已落入大拋銀彈的電訊盈科(008)手上,相信要看英超的球迷就要過檔,而無綫收費電視服務正利用電盈的網絡平台傳送,即代表有更多交叉銷售機會,但看完足球會否看劇集,真的要諗諗計。

(5月15日刊於《am730》)

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