Monday, April 30, 2007

美投資者想沽貨

美股屢創新高,投資者身家水漲船高,但究竟坐擁資產的美國投資者心態是怎樣的呢?他們又怎看前景呢?

所謂知己知彼,且看美國一個專門訪問投資總資產(total investable assets)超過500萬美元(約3,900萬港元)的投資者的統計便可略知一二。這個名為「US Trust Survery of Affluent Americans」的調查發現,已有超過一半受訪者話美股風險日增,更有18%正作評估,考慮減磅也!相對只有8%受訪者考慮減持海外股票比重,是否意味美股沽貨行動將開始?

這也難怪,皆因去年回報不俗,與其望著自己的「紙上富貴」,倒不如先套現「袋落袋」更理想。原來在過去一個年度,85%受訪者指回報符合甚至超越預期,最主要的財富增長依然來自美股和房地產投資,普遍預期美股平均年回報率為8.85%,而對海外股票投資要求較高,平均年回報率為9.66%。

除傳統投資工具外,近年投資熱點——對沖基金亦成追捧對象,而這些受訪者普遍開始接受這種投資工具,超過一半受訪者認為可提供理想的投資回報率,和減低風險,但超過七成均指難以判斷好壞。故此,投資對沖基金的比重亦不過2%而已,反映這批有錢家庭仍然對這類產品認知有限。相信這個調查多少反映今日香港中產人士的心態,他們投資股市和買樓收租以保值,相信在過去兩年已享受成果(如果有投資的話),可以避免手頭資金被逐步上升的通脹所蠶食。奈何見到股市和樓市已有一定升幅,究竟繼續玩下去,或是套現獲利,再作等候,正如財經演員經常唱的「候低吸納」呢?

漢堡王
近日往機場逛逛,看看翔天廊這個新巨無霸物業,發現商店較淡靜,但食市暢旺,其中一間就是Burger King(漢堡王),雖然只佔美食廣場一角,但拿着大漢堡便可解決一餐,不失為方便之策。
這個集團撤離香港後,於03年重回,已在山頂和國際會議展貿中心設據點,在機場內外(離港層和翔天廊)均設門市,據聞連抵港層那間麥當勞的位置也被漢堡王奪得經營權,即一場3店也。

漢堡王拓展亞洲市場,過去半年已落實進軍日本和印尼市場,相信是公司上市後向股東交代的其中一個策略。該集團在歐美市場正面對如另一對手麥當勞同樣的不利局面,就是產品被形容為「垃圾食品」、產品不健康等批評,加上當地關注過度肥胖問題,要吸引客戶大啖肉拼薯條的餐單難免受到衝擊。且看該集團剛公布的業績中,原來第一季在英國這個第二大市場已結束21間門市,令門市總數降至578間。儘管口號「HAVE IT YOUR WAY」(台灣漢堡王譯為「我選我味」)不變,鼓勵客戶繼續大啖漢堡,但也要跟隨這股健康潮流,推出健康食品如沙律等迎戰,反映要在歐美這些成熟市場擴展確有難度。

亞洲區的消費者似乎未有那麼抗拒這個巨型漢堡,因為過肥問題在亞洲市場未至太嚴重,且接納海外新鮮事物能力較強。其實,除漢堡王之外,日本另一漢堡王MOS BURGER早前登陸觀塘apm後,已共設3間門市,第四間亦準備開幕。話雖售價比獨霸市場的老麥為高,但區內中產人士對單價較高的漢堡仍消費得起。

最近看到前雅虎亞洲董事總經理周勝南管理的北亞策略(8080),獲得漢堡王的港澳地區10年經營權,就知道有人看好這個市場,正是有人漏夜趕科場的好例子。

(4月30日刊於《am730》)

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