Tuesday, April 24, 2007

新新興市場渴市

別以為只有金魚缸的IPO才要爭餐死,禤中怡昨日就為認購一隻基金而奔波。上周,如常收到Banker來電,推介各類投資產品。當中有一隻是千呼萬喚始出來的,就是摩根富林明旗下的JF越南機會基金,是本港首隻能投資越南的零售基金。

雖然禤中怡的investment portfolio(投資組合)都算幾diversified(多元化),覆蓋多個範圍,甚至持有不少投資在亞太或東協的基金,這些基金在越南的exposure依然有限。禤中怡認真細閱推介文件及上網搜尋,研究相關資料後,覺得能配合自己的investment portfolio及risk appetite(風險接受能力),上周六馬上致電Banker預留認購。誰不知瘦田無人耕,耕開有人爭,幾經辛苦才得丁點quota。這令我想起去年認購JF中國先驅A股(直接透過QFII投資內地A股)基金一役,又是在僧多粥少情況下,得到些微基金單位,而今天該基金的回報已雙倍奉還。

現時,越南的人口約八千多萬,以人口計算,是繼印尼及菲律賓之後,東協第三大國。越南的人均收入約為600美元,僅及印尼一半。自2000年起,越南經濟平均每年增長逾7%,是典型的新興國家。重要行業包括農業、漁業、礦產業,亦是長遠較供求失衡的行業。

另外,製造業亦是龍頭行業、對比中國及其鄰近東協各國,其廉宜的勞工成本,是極富競爭力。因此,愈來愈多廠家到越南設廠。基建工程如公路、港口、電廠等,也是機會處處。

最近如火箭上升的陸氏實業(366)就是在當地設水泥廠,不過投資者要小心及考慮能否承受這些「新新興市場」股票的波幅及所需回報年期,以昨天為例,陸氏股價一天波幅可以是由9元至10.18元,比對上周五收市價跌了6%,成交額3,700萬元。投資越南當然也有其他風險,如法規,政治以致禽流感,Well, risk and return always come together! (當然,投資回報與風險往往並駕齊驅) 。至於越南鄰國的柬埔寨也有一隻叫金界控股(3918) 在香港上市,但賭股絕不是禤中怡的那杯茶,管他有幾好賺!

港股又表演過山車
港股昨日表演甚麼叫單日轉向,開市早段曾急升190點,抽上20,757點後,以為又向新高挑戰,豈料再衝乏力,指數更掉頭向下,重磅藍籌股如中國移動(941)自然成為拖累大市升幅收窄的主角,全日跌逾2.8%,收市報72.8元,更令恒指午後倒跌,尾市收巿報20,556點,跌10點,幸好另一隻重磅股滙豐控股(005)力守145元收市,升0.4元,但港股總成交又見減少至505.5億元。至於國企股指數已跟隨內地大隊,單日升0.53%,報10,234點,真的升到你唔信。

細價股炒個不亦樂乎,但證監會對近期出現「設定收市價」的個案已十分注意,並表明就一些懷疑個案進行調查,大家要留意。其實,在收市或接收市時發出交易指示,藉此以人為方式設定或影響收市價的做法是「設定收市價」,屬違法行為,亦是較容易偵察的市場失當行為。

不過,若果看看現時計算收市價方法就知底蘊。在3時59分開始,每隔15秒計算按盤價一次,即共取5個按盤價的中位數作為收市價,即只要控制這一分鐘內的5個按盤價,要設定收市價的機會便大增,隨時變成股價全日下跌,收市變為上升,股民一不留神便「中招」。雖然港交所(388)已提出引入收市競價交易時段,希望改善這種情況,但所謂道高一尺,魔高一丈,投資者在金魚缸搵食始終要小心為妙。

(4月24日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

At 7:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

很多外國財經雜誌也談多了你所提的新興市場, 但我有擔心它會是另一泰國的經驗.

 
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