Friday, April 13, 2007

期貨好玩過二三線股

近日中資金融股氣勢如虹,單看隻國壽(2628)就更是愈升愈有,可能投資賓架密密收貨,準備應付下周一的新遊戲登場:恒生中國H股金融行業指數期貨(H股金融指數期貨)也!

大孖沙近來如此落力,收貨準備開倉,令H股金融指數單是在本月6個交易日已升近765點,增幅達6.6%。這期貨涵蓋在香港上市的內地金融股,即大家熟悉的「五行三保」所組成的恒生中國H股金融行業指數(H股金融指數)。

由於這類股份備受追捧,所以港交所(388)自然識搵財路,皆因現時期貨產品依然以恒指期貨最受歡迎,當中又以大期(即恒指期貨上落每點子為50元的合約)表現較佳,原本想吸納闊太等散戶投資者的細期(即恒指期貨上落每點為10元的合約)受歡迎程度則未見突出,加上近期股票有得炒,期貨吸引力自然削弱,所以將產品多元化,可以開多一條財路。

期貨界朋友話,其實期貨這種投資工具分分鐘比玩二三線股為佳,只需關注大圍氣氛環境變化,由於恒生指數的股份比重已作調整,以往一股獨大的現象已不復見,加入國壽(2628)等巨無霸股份後,大戶要「做世界」的成本自然有所提高,真的是「fair play」得多。

期貨市場交易對手眾多,走勢透明度高,根本不用像買賣二三線股般,一邊要憂慮管理層質素,如「監守自盜」。假若莊家參與熱情度突然冷卻,成交一縮,手上批貨想離場就困難,最不幸的是,這類股份孖展額度低,往往真金白銀落場玩,如果股份無端長期停牌的話,投資即時被綁,還要望天打卦,難怪散戶最怕坐隔夜倉!

有金融界朋友更打趣話,投資期貨其實回報不俗,如恒指期貨推出時才2,000多點,若當時已入市,並且每月進行轉倉至下一個月,一直持有至今的話,那張合約總值已升值不知多少倍!

至於H股金融指數雖然推出僅4個多月,但若以06年回報率計,高達約136%,較H股指數的回報率94%還高。至於兩指數相關系數為89.6%,無辦法,以上月中計,「五行三保」約佔H股指數總市值49%,按照如此升勢,超過50%比重絕對不難。若H股金融指數仍續向上,持好倉的回報也不俗,但禤中怡又要補充證監會那「市場有升有跌」提醒句。

究竟指數可以有多大變化?且看H股指數期貨於03年底推出時,首日成交才逾1,300張,但昨日成交量已增至1.7萬張。至於首日指數開市報4,077點,而昨日收市見10,163點,升幅足足有1.49倍!

此外,06年H股金融指數與H股指數的歷史波幅分別為27.7%及23.9%,反映有更大的上落波幅,短炒投資者也可玩「即日鮮」。

內地貸款增長驚人
中國人民銀行話首季人民幣貸款增加1.42萬億元,比去年同期的數字增加1,678億元,其中居民戶貸款增長驚人,3個月增加3,321億元,與去年同期數字比較,多增達1,578億元,即新增貸款金額增加九成!

至於這些貸款用作甚麼呢?禤中怡估計用作投資的機會頗大。且看內地股市雖然於2月曾出現大插水,上海證券指數單日大挫8%,但投資情緒絲毫未有受打擊,股民更趁低位入市,齊齊推高股價,表現「龍的精神」,滬深股市昨日繼續攜手創新高,上海證券綜合指數以3,531點收市,又升1%,而深圳證券成分指數更直撲1萬點關口,以全日最高位9,964.78點新高收市,升2.16%。兩地股市成交亦達2,359.74億元人民幣。

上海股市有745隻股份上漲,129隻下跌;深圳股市有520隻股份上漲,101隻下跌。

同缸邊朋友談起,他們認為內地股民下一步的投資策略就如香港的股民般,趁股市高位賣股套現獲利,然後拿著一大堆錢可以做甚麼呢?相信會轉投樓市,將賺取的巨利買「磚頭」,畢竟收租兼有實物揸手,感覺更穩陣。

由於內地始終缺乏投資工具,除了樓就是股,銀行存款和國債的回報低得可憐,反映投向樓市這種趨勢無可避免,難怪碧桂園(2007)趁勢上市,如資金流入樓市,你話該股今年盤數幾值得憧憬呢!

不過,如果樓市又重新出現瘋狂狀態,中央出手打壓指日可待,大家入市時要注意這個政策性因素,否則高買低賣就得不償失。

至於港股連升5日後,終見調整,在中資股力頂下,恒指略跌69點至20,380點,但H股指數則續受惠祖國股市屢創新高,再升13點至10,163點。全日總成交仍逾600億元。

(4月13日刊於《am730》)

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