Monday, April 02, 2007

置業的投資態度

禤中怡很少談樓,皆因前面有更權威的施永青,他做的正是地產生意,對樓市走勢,甚至光怪陸離的也必瞭如指掌。不過,看完一則新聞後,也想談置業的投資態度。

日前閱報,有一對夫婦因擔心失業而無法供樓,竟想到燒炭自殺的慘劇,幸好及時臨崖勒馬,打消念頭,性命得保,至於情況如何,相信傳媒已無興趣再追蹤。

問題是,報道提到他倆於2000年以120萬元購入屯門大興花園600餘呎單位,資金來自房委會貸款80萬元,及銀行按揭38萬元,即代表該對夫婦出資僅2萬元便上車。

禤中怡一向認為置業並非單純以「自住」為藉口,就可以不理自己的物業價值升跌狀況,因為「物業」無論作何種用途,價格的變化對仍在按揭中的物業具有槓桿特性,可算是投資的一種,而任何投資也需時常檢討,更要在非常時期作非常決定,否則分分鐘陷入萬劫不復的境地。

就以該對夫婦為例,其投資力度可能比孖展認購新股還大。若報道正確的話,他們以2萬元去「持有」一個價值120萬元(以買入價計)的物業,即槓桿比率達60倍,或可說孖展比率達98%,試問買新股的孖展率也只有90%,投資者最低限度也要有一成資金吧!可見以小控大的威力,不過,就算用現有95%按揭保險計,其實本金投入太少,風險自然提升,如樓價稍有波動便變「負資產」,若同時又不保持一定金額的流動資金,遇上任何問題時,便會出現這種不知所措所引發出來的不必要念頭。

無疑,每日為口奔馳,失去工作更是頭等大事,缺乏安全感絕對可以理解,因為現金流就等如身體上的血一樣,血液流動不足,身體自然出現問題。

有朋友最近剛巧亦被裁員(不要以為經濟好景就等如無裁員),他選擇即時找其保險和財務顧問,查看自己手上的資產情況,同時決定放售自己正供款的住宅,藉此減低供樓支出,而更重要的是舒緩心理壓力。

但問題是,二手樓缺乏發展商促銷一手樓般的競爭力,如不能對買家提供甚麼置業優惠,例如先住後付、樓盤未設有大型會所等,故要有心理準備,需要放售一段時間方可脫身。

幸運的是,朋友尋覓一段時間後,終找到另一份工作,但這次事件已提醒他,現金流的重要性,以及事先儲蓄,以作應付突如其來的資金需要。

其實,置業的確是一般人的夢想,禤中怡亦希望大家願望成真,但理財的態度亦相當重要,如計算自己供樓所佔收入比重,扣除其他開支後,能否保持有一定儲蓄,因為人生並非單單是為一層樓,還有你的退休生活呢!

的確,面對現金流出現負數,即入不敷支,投資者第一步應是減輕憂慮,其中最好的方法就是減少支出,甚至可能要忍痛「斬纜」,出售物業,畢竟樓宇按揭尚未供完,代表你尚欠銀行貸款,而貸款是要定期償還的,故售樓後轉為租樓,絕對不是失敗的行為,相反是聰明的決定,因為不但能透過手上資源應付基本生活,亦可延長搵工時間。

看見這對夫婦有尋死的勇氣,禤中怡建議他們何不轉化為搵工的動力,即使一時三刻或許找不到合適的工作,也可先騎牛搵馬,一邊保持有現金流入(就是那份薪水嘛!),邊找更理想的工作,才是真正投資(人生) 之道!

城市集中化
日本一招免簽證果然奏效,香港人去東瀛就如往返深圳般方便,身邊已有不少朋友出發往當地度假,相信在這個假期,料不少讀者也會以這個國家做旅遊地點。
在眾多地點中,又必以其首都東京做落腳點,畢竟新潮物多,在新宿見到的香港人數目,絕對不少呢?

其實,除遊客外,本土居民原來也湧向東京。據當地土地部門統計,於06年淨流入的人口數目達90,079名,較05年的86,562名多3,517名,從數字上看好像增長不多,但原來淨流入數字已是43年以來新高,之前的紀錄於1963年所錄得,當年淨流入的人口為109,448名,而那時正好是日本經濟高增長期。

除東京外,連同附近的千葉、神奈川和埼玉3個縣也受惠,4個地方合共淨流入132,033名人口。至於另一個亦受當地人歡迎的地方就是名古屋,大家還記得這個地方曾舉辦世界博覽會嗎?連同附近3個縣,去年也吸引17,874名淨流入人口,相信世博已為該地方帶來不少經濟機遇。

這個數字是否代表日本經濟全面復甦,相信有待考證,但所謂人望高處,水向低流,如果有人力需求,自然要搶奪這方面資源。不過,這問題已引發與其他城市之間的貧富懸殊愈趨惡化。日本政府估計隨著人口下降,將可能有2,600條村落消失!這種情況在內地已屬司空見慣,估不到日本這種經濟成熟的地方,也面對這種社會現象,但地方與地方之間的貧富懸殊趨勢只會愈拉愈闊,人口集中的地方也面臨資源緊張問題,大家估一估東京樓價會否再飛升呢?

至於大家知道流失人口最嚴重的又是甚麼地方呢?當然是天氣嚴峻、商業機會較少的地區,這個地方就是北海道也,流失18,386名人口。

後記:禤中怡向讀者們報告胖媽媽病情,據ICU方面消息,母親可望日內轉往一般病房,繼續接受治療,而她目前已逐漸清醒過來,並嚷著希望吃東西,真的感謝上帝對我們一家的恩惠,並在此感謝廣華ICU各醫護人員對家母的照顧,並對讀者的關心致以衷心感激。

(4月2日刊於《am730》)

12 Comments:

At 1:53 PM, Anonymous Ming said...

glad to hear your monther is getting better :)

 
At 3:13 PM, Anonymous Polly said...

為你媽媽感恩啊..會繼續為她的康復祈禱的..^.^

 
At 4:17 PM, Anonymous Winter Sunshine said...

Extremely happy to hear your mother is getting better. Be nice to her, make her feel your warmth and care, you are lucky.

 
At 9:26 PM, Blogger Wheel said...

good news, hope that your mon get well soon

 
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