Thursday, March 29, 2007

首季新股五浮六沉

有朋友問應否繼續抽新股,禤中怡話無問題,但切記小注怡情,皆因投機味重。為甚麼屬投機呢?表面上,多間公司上市時都有一本厚甸甸的招股書,詳列各項風險因素、行業概覽,甚至訴訟等都會巨細無遺,分分鐘比上市多年的上市公司年報還仔細,有投資者話研究清楚就可以作出投資決定。

禤中怡無意否定這個講法,而這種招股制度亦可讓投資者多一點了解,奈何股民與新上市公司始終是「第一次」見面,即使是一些從上市公司中分拆出來的公司,但管理層究竟如何獨立運作新公司,始終還需時間去驗證,最近有否看見金禾國際董事誇大盈利和造假帳而被捕,公司亦慘遭除牌嗎?

業績固然可作參考,但「砌靚盤數」是上市必需,管理層質素好與壞卻影響以後公司的發展,故禤中怡一直認為市場有很多管理好、業績佳,起碼熟悉管理層運作的上市公司,可視為投資,而新股就如交友,始終需時間培養「感情」。當然,有投資者認為大型企業招股,「衰極有限」,亦是吸引大家垂青的原因之一。

講開新股,證監會亦再次「開聲」叫投資者小心,該會更做了一份統計,話去年本港有59隻新股上市,平均首日升26%,上市一個月之後,仍然有近33%的升勢,升幅較恒指高出28%,相對05年新股上市後一個月,平均升幅較恒指高7%,足足多出近21個百分點,咪話唔值得關注。

連該會行政總裁韋奕禮(Martin Wheatley)亦叫投資者千祈不要因去年新股表現強勁而樂極忘形。去年豐收不等於是未來股份表現指標,雖然去年有9隻新股在上市後的一個月,股價低於招股價,12隻表現差於恒指,表現較恒指低約25%至50%,但仍然要小心及留意股價有下跌的風險!

還有兩天,今年第一季就此完結,希望大家大有斬獲。禤中怡也做了一個小統計,不計從創業板轉主板股份,首季共有11隻新股在主板掛牌,若果每隻都抽,兼持有至今的話,回報可能並非突出,因其中6隻股價原來仍「潛水」,即低於招股價也,佔總數超過一半,最突出的就是台一國際(1808),股價至今累跌19.8%,而中國地產(1838)和美維控股(3313)亦已跌逾10%。幸好,中國糧油控股(606)及中國滙源果汁(1886)兩隻新股仍帶來69%和51%巨額回報。雖說投資講長線,今日股價一時回落不足懼,但也要注意所買的公司股份究竟是否值得長期持有。

但問題在於現時股市太活躍了,而且在經濟增長及物價上升的帶動下,相對上,上市公司的上市要求卻沒有同步大幅上調,這客觀情況造就了合資格搞上市的公司數目上升(以正常邏輯推算),但量與質卻往往不可能完全成正比例,故當大市愈旺,上市公司的質素反而愈備受考驗,小股民必須小心為上策。

高層氹氹轉
李氏家族的作風認真一致。電訊盈科(008)副主席兼董事總經理蘇澤光(洋名Jack So)決定離開高層職位,另謀發展,相信他必找到一個更理想的落腳點。之前政界已吹風他做官,會否成真就要拭目以待。

但為甚麼話李家作風一致呢?皆因早前和記黃埔(013)屬下負責零售業務的屈臣氏集團董事總經理韋以安(Ian Wade)從高位退下來,官方答案是他要退休了。

不過,禤中怡聽聞韋以安似非功德圓滿,內部傳出他是即日離開公司,亦沒有甚麼退休慶祝活動。之後看到和黃06年度業績便覺有點巧合,因該集團零售業務未計利息和稅項前盈利(EBIT)大挫17%,主因為收購法國香水業務虧損,亦有重組支出,即使不計該筆支出,EBIT仍跌3%,與以往增長大相逕庭,難怪要下台。事有湊巧,Jack So離開之際,電盈業績大倒退,莫非又要承擔責任?

(3月29日刊於《am730》)

9 Comments:

At 8:29 AM, Anonymous 會計仔 said...

其實以Ian Wade 既年紀, 退休已經傳了很久, 偶然的機會不小

 
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