Tuesday, March 20, 2007

內地樓價升極都有

內地加完息,美息又料穩定不變,大家炒息口大局已定,亞洲區股市於是再升過,日股和韓股齊升逾1%,港股升幅更達1.65%,不計內地股市,可算是區內之冠,僅泰國和菲律賓股市表現較失色。

恒指上升動力仍主要來自中國移動(941),但中國人壽(2628)對港股的貢獻已不容忽視,昨日該股便帶動恒指攀近26點,與滙豐控股(005)帶動升28點不相伯仲,可見國壽的威力漸展露出來。

不過,港股成交額只有385億元,反映整體交投未算突出,甚至有點「乾升」味道,莫非大家對月初的大插插(恒指單日跌777點)這種悲壯場面已適應過來,而慢慢習慣的結果就是戒心減少,當大家對上落波幅稍為大一點也不覺是一回事的時候,正是讓大戶部署好再做一次大龍鳳的好機會,因為美國次級按揭貸款這個計時炸彈好像還未拆除。

市場普遍預期內地房地產股或再遭加息這個負面因素影響而重創,皆因公司借貸利息支出勢必上升外,置業者又可能因按揭支出提高而多一層考慮因素,難怪部分股份股價逆市下跌,如首創置業(2868)挫2%、上海置業(1207)跌1.1%、上海姑爺負責的瑞安房地產(272)也有0.6%跌幅。但情況又並非一面倒,如中國富豪之一的許榮茂揸FIT的世茂房地產(813)升0.5%至14.68元、百仕達控股(1168)升0.6%,而富力地產(2777)更升0.7%。為甚麼呢?

除了市場已消化了加息外,國家發展和改革委員會及國家統計局亦「適時地」公布好消息支持房地產股。兩個政府機構統計顯示,原來2月全國70個大中城市整體樓價比去年同期升5.3%,漲幅比1月雖低0.3個百分點;但該幅度仍算不俗吧!

新樓價格比去年同期升5.9%,漲幅比1月低0.2個百分點;其中一般住宅樓價漲6.1%,漲幅比1月
低0.2個百分點;豪宅比去年同期更升6.7%,若與1月比仍升0.3%,反映政府於去年5月推出15條地產宏調細則,本意原在控制樓價。嚴控豪宅供應量的惡果開始浮現,因供應有限,需求卻上升,價格還怎會下跌,試問在香港發展物業的地產商,看在眼裡是否不是味兒?!

若果再細分,按個別地區計算,與去年同期比較,漲幅較大的城市包括深圳、北京、廣州和福州等已發展城市樓價均升逾9%。至於與1月比較,樓價升幅超過1%的城市更有19個,主要是二三線城市升幅較厲害。

二手樓價方面,整體比去年同期上漲4.4%,漲幅比1月低0.9個百分點,其中深圳升12.4%,北京亦有9.4%增幅,反映部分城市二手樓價比一手的增幅還多,請問過去一年所推出的宏觀調控措施,功效究竟發揮到那個程度?究竟當局有否評估呢?

對內地房產市場而言,會否再加息已不再是考慮因素,因為市場資金充裕,買樓置業仍是內地人主要的投資工具,即使推出不同行政措施,只能起一時之效,當大家適應下來,或「鑽空子」找到方法對付的話,如果未能對症下藥,那股置業需求始終不滅,背後動力就是為資金「排洪」,提供更多投資渠道配合,讓內地居民有其他投資機會,自然減少單邊投資情況,否則只有樓市和股市兩途,不升至爆燈才怪,屆時才考慮挽救措施恐怕已太遲。

由於市場又預期息口短期不會有重大變化,即意味內地房地產商受息口問題困擾已渡過,加上有樓價配合,這類房地產股會否再成為新一輪熱潮呢?

(3月20日刊於《am730》)

14 Comments:

At 1:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

禤先生:
不好意思打擾你!其實我不是要發表對你在20/3日的文章的意見。而我亦不太懂使用blogger來跟別人溝通﹐故才在這跟你聯絡!!
因為我在今日的AM730內知道你和你媽媽的事﹐希望可以向你和你家人表達半點的支持和關心!我也希望能夠透過禱告﹐上帝會給你平安﹐有力量走過這次的難關﹐而且給你媽媽醫治!
你雖說;你不算一個虔誠的基督徒﹐但我想;上帝去愛你不會跟你去計算你有多愛祂﹐要不然﹐耶穌的死就不會有太的意義了﹐祂對你的愛和每一個人都是一樣要比天高啊!
所以你可全然放心﹐上帝必定聽你的禱告和豐足的恩典賜給你和你的家人﹐更重要的是祂會同你在一起﹐擔你的扼!!
祝你媽媽早日康復!
Stephen

 
At 6:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

褟中怡:
來意和Stephen一樣,看到你今早的文章,想给你一點支持和鼓勵,人生起跌有如股海中的波浪!我本人目前也正處於水深火熱之中,跟你一樣,是一個虔誠教徒,但信上帝!恰巧林以諾也答應為我祈禱!
我想给你分享一點信仰經歷,基督徒求的是與主同行,求衪按着旨意成就大事,即使結果與自己所想的不同,也要順服,相信主的恩典夠我們用,事實上,慈愛的主,從不會掉下衪的兒女不顧。
我們沒法祈求神蹟,但可以求主帶領我們走過死蔭的幽谷!
多抽時間陪伴父母,讓她認識主耶稣會背負我們走過人生每一步!將來也會在天上快樂地與衪同活!
願主保守你!當信主耶稣,你和你一家都必得救!為你和你媽媽禱告!

CY Ho

 
At 7:46 PM, Anonymous Jeff said...

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I would like to contact you to see if you are interested to have more readers without extra workload. The site is in beta now and will be lunached next month.

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At 10:28 PM, Blogger 少帥 said...

師兄
我都係睇到今日 am 730 知道你屋企出左 d 事,我冇上面幾位師兄咁好文筆,所以請容許我係度大叫 - 師兄!! 支持你!! 你要加油喔!!
如果分唔到身,就叫 d 兄弟幫你寫一兩日啦,呢 d 時候最緊要唔好挨壞身子喔

 
At 11:33 PM, Blogger 禤中怡 said...

小弟在此感謝各位的支持。

 
At 11:35 PM, Blogger 禤中怡 said...

Jeff兄:

小弟在此聲明,未獲本人同意或授權,敬請不要轉載本人之文章到貴公司的網站,如經發現,只得依法處理,希敬留意

 
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