Tuesday, March 06, 2007

大戶對撼與大跌市

面對溫總開口叫銀行控制信貸增長,五行三保無可避免成眾矢之的,齊齊跌個翻天覆地,其中以中國財險(2328)挫6.6%至4.06元最厲害,尾市有兩個以4.06元的大手成交,分別達41.4萬股和18.4萬股力頂,才免進一步下挫。中國工商銀行(1398)雖然跌幅相對較小,只有4.77%,奈何股價已跌穿4元,收市報3.99元,較去年10月底上市時招股價3.07元,僅高約30%,但在最後7分鐘,大戶在3.99元咬著不放,差不多以每50萬股的氣勢增持,令全日大手成交數目逾千宗。

至於中銀香港(2388)母公司中國銀行(3988)收市則跌2.1%至3.59元,距離招股價2.95元僅多約21.7%,雖破底不易,但回報縮減已成事實。

大行朋友話有客戶上周以為趁低「撈底」,吸納大價股,但即使如何抵抗也無法阻擋下跌洪流。以為滙豐控股(005)股價於135元有支持?大戶即「拆你倉」,幸有好友於收市最後半小時在133元之間爭持,有手24萬股成交,涉高達3,190萬元,承接者真是要看好後市,否則押錯注。全日該股大手成交數目近千宗,涉4,167萬股,佔總成交股數4,511萬股的92%,反映大戶對撼跡象明顯,難怪傳對沖基金平倉沽貨套現離場,亦有基金趁勢買入。此外,以昨日成交為例,連窩輪等在內共有2,388隻股份下跌,與上月底,即2月28日恒指大跌近500點時,約2,265隻股份下跌比較,下跌數目明顯增加,而昨日成交額雖較上月底當日所創紀錄的804億元少,但成交股數卻由727.59億股大增至860億股,反映角力情況厲害。

題外話,由於交投暢旺,港交所(388)亦樂於由4月2日起,將證券及衍生產品延時數據發布時間差距由現時60分鐘及30分鐘縮短至15分鐘。此外,其網站內的「投資服務中心」欄目所提供的電郵及短訊提示服務,可選定上市公司數目上限由10家增至20家。雖然時間差距縮短,但所謂決勝毫釐,若延遲發布數據時間再縮短至5分鐘就最理想。

李嘉誠又有新搞作
李嘉誠一鋪賣印度資產大賺,即時展開財技,重整系內業務,首先是TOM集團(2383)率先出動,準備將旗下於創業板上市僅3年的TOM在線(8282)私有化。

由於TOM集團本身已持有TOM在線約28億股,即約65.73%股權,故只需收購餘下約14.596億股便可完成私有化。以該股停牌時報1.14元計,假設再加約5%溢價,即每股私有化作價約1.2元,私有化總資金需求約為17.5億元。

TOM在線業務是無線增值服務和入門網站等,最近更夥拍美國eBay於內地組合營公司,齊齊拓展易趣網。該集團去年首9個月盈利倒退9.6%,但單是去年第三季盈利便較05年同期跌59%,絕對有「充分理由」話業績不好,私有化讓股東套現作其他更好的投資機會,甚至以前景難料做原因。至於TOM集團於去年6月底手頭現金約17億元,上市債券約19億元,即共約36億元。至於該集團長短期貸款總額約29.87億元,雖然其中10.5億元屬可換股債券,還款年期較長,但負債比率已達40.7%,如真金白銀私有化TOM在線,意味負債續增。

TOM集團於04年3月分拆TOM在線時,吸引超額認購93倍,當時每股定價1.5元,直至05年底股價終見2元,06年4月更曾見2.8元,可惜股價隨後逐步向下,今年1月初再跌破招股價。如當時認購該股的投資者仍未放手,自然希望李先生慷慨解囊,最少以當年招股價私有化,但與昨日停牌價計,意味要有約31.5%溢價,你估會否到價呢?

(3月6日刊於《am730》)

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