Thursday, February 15, 2007

德國郵政有計

禤中怡最近往德國公幹,雖然德國以啤酒同香腸而馳名,但是禤中怡人到中年,對這兩樣美食都是敬而遠之為妙。

大家都知DHL早已屬德國郵政(Deutsche Post)所有,故大家寄郵件往德國,搵香港郵政同DHL都是一樣,因為最後處理都是DHL,而德國郵政一向都好識搞新花臣。最近他們將郵政信箱結合高科技,將一項名叫Packstation的服務進一步提升,我覺得香港郵政好值得去偷吓師。

Packstation是一個設在德國全國各地的新款郵政信箱,尺寸大概好像自助即影即有影相站那般大,Packstation的用家先向德國郵政登記,之後就會編配到一張類似信用卡的東西。你可以選擇將你的信件派往你指定的Packstation,當郵件到達Packstation,即刻以SMS(即短訊)方式通知你,而你可24小時憑卡拿取自己的信件。單是體積同服務時間,已經贏過傳統郵政信箱。

但Packstation最厲害的地是,還可以收取速遞郵件,Packstation的用家在網上,將Waybill同Invoice(發票)等文件印妥,貼在寄出的郵件上面,然後放入Packstation內,Packstation自己會曉得辨認郵件,並且在你的信用卡戶口內扣數,或者月底出單要你找數。簡單來說,他就是一間麻雀雖小,五臟俱全的迷你自助郵局。大家都知Deutsche Post業務好多,如銀行、郵票、物流等等,一個Packstation可以請少好多人外,若在全德國各地設置Packstation,增加據點數目,變相提升競爭力,其他速遞對手如FedEx或者UPS等想同佢爭都頗為困難。

如果香港都搞個類似Packstation的物體,除了收掛號信不用那麼麻煩,以及不用等郵局開門至收到郵政信箱的信,不少廠佬實拍爛手掌,因為真是做到24小時隨時收件。而且香港郵政信箱長期不足夠,但以香港的租金,每年三百元租用一個小郵箱又是蝕本生意。如果學德國郵政推出Packstation,除了郵箱業務不用再蝕錢,而且特快專遞、賣郵票、收帳單等業務,可以不再需要額外請太多人搞24小時服務。而Packstation仲可以做埋自助售賣機、八達通增值機等功能,你話德國人係咪好橋?

禤中怡建議郵政署長有時間應往德國睇睇同業,如何利用高科技提升生產力,幾時有機會將Packstation引進來香港。

港股大插早有警告

港股大插插,總要找個理由去解釋,大家就以關注資金外流,加上瑞銀陸東有報告話恒指要調整1,500點云云去支持昨日大跌狀況。

面對上落波動,禤中怡早明白財經演員要有理據地提出大市急速回落的原因。不過,未知大家炒細價股是否炒得太瘋狂,或是市場有點滯後,將警告訊息遞延反映出來。

首先,金管局總裁任志剛上周六已公開提醒大家要注意資金流向問題,因本港金融市場全面開放,吸引不少槓桿式買賣(即利用孖展融資等借貸方式)的投資者,他們對市場訊息反應敏感,對現貨市場產生波動情況,意味一有任何風吹草動,資金流向便會在短時間作出改變,隨時抽資離場。此外,他提出現時有投資者的冒險能力及管理風險能力已出現脫節,甚至以:「有人抱著『博一鋪』的心態,對市場如癡如醉,猶如坐過山車又不扣安全帶。」,暗示有投資者「炒過籠」,股市逆轉便難全身而退。

至於對陸東的報告就更是後知後覺,因為他早於月初接受電視台訪問時,已提出港股或需調整1,500點,可能投資者未有注視這點。

其實,面對滙豐控股(005)於美國的業務出現困境,已為大市提供負面訊號,加上VODAFONE(VOD)競投和電國際(2332)的印度流動電話業務時,市場已關注VOD投資中國移動(941)的股份非輕,一旦要集資應付收購時,或沽售中移動股份套現,必然對大市構成一定心理影響。難得「空軍」忍耐至今才趁消息大舉出動,紛紛再炒其他壞消息,將恒指大幅推低。不要以為今次純粹一次短暫調整,缸邊朋友提醒昨日現貨月期指在一個早上已有逾4萬張合約成交,全日總成交更達7.6萬張,與日常全日約4萬張比較,交投頻繁的同時,淡友已準備「做世界」。

朋友話不少好倉料於20,200點附近積聚,雖然倉底深厚,奈何昨日插穿至20,132點,恐怕好友「打靶」機會大,意味大市可能要先喘氣,尋底後才有反彈。或許大家真的可以提早收爐,先準備彈藥派利是,兼趁假期思考後市去向,方再博過。

(2月14日刊於《am730》)

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