Thursday, February 08, 2007

股價急升道理何在

除了中資股承接內地股市造好大升外,近日細價股也活躍得厲害,昨竟有逾20隻股份被聯交所查詢,要刊登股價及/或成交量不尋常的通告,但基本上部分成交未見配合。在大價股中,廣州廣船(317)較像樣,單日升25%至23元,成交額1.26億元,原來大摩調高其評級至「增持」, H 股目標價料見30.2元,因憧憬受惠母公司重組及獲注入新資產。

中國投資基金(612)和福茂(462)排名升幅榜第三和四位,分別升74.5%和47%至0.48和1.92元,成交分別逾6,982萬和4,096萬元。中國投資基金主要投資上市及非上市證券,截至去年12月底資產淨值才0.15元,較去年中升25%。去年港股大升,莫非有顯著盈利推動股價能夠以此速度向上,令股價升幅比資產淨值增長還強勁,但公司又話不明股價升因,何解?

前日談及新股不對辦例子後,另一隻又被聯交所公開譴責。05年10月10日上市的佳邦環球(471)編製05年10月帳目時,才知道主要客戶摩托羅拉集團(Motorola Group)延遲若干採購訂單,加上若干主要元件短缺,05年度營業額及盈利將受不利影響,顧問金榜融資(亞洲)於同年11月底提交首份盈利預警公告草擬本供董事會審閱,但公司最終無遵守董事會決定,於12月底發出盈利警告,並延至06年1月9日才發出盈利預警公告,翌日即1月10日股價亦受影響,收市大跌17%。聯交所譴責該公司外,亦公開譴責3名董事違反《董事承諾》,未有遵守披露責任。該集團上市首年份成績單已見不得人,或可說是企業管治水平不足,這才需藉上市去提高監管水平,大家理應包涵,但顧問及保薦人也應跟進,讓股東盡快知道實情。其實,該集團那份截至06年6月底中期業績,披露純利仍倒退40%,已告訴大家應作甚麼投資決定,公開譴責只是再一次凸顯問題而已。

喬布斯打民意牌
喬布斯(Steve Jobs)領導蘋果(Apple)浴火重生,但要再進一步發展就要靠群眾支持。看看他罕有地在其網站(www.apple.com/hotnews/)發出一封題為「Thoughts on Music」公開信,要求唱片公司放棄數碼版權管理技術(Digital Rights Management system,DRM)應用在其iTunes網上商店,主要針對四大公司:環球唱片(Universal)、Sony BMG、華納(Warner)和EMI,他們已佔全球音樂70%佔有率!正當內容供應商談盜版色變之際,如微軟(Microsoft)新視窗軟件Vista在內地「老翻價」僅十數元人民幣,為何喬布斯冒此風險呢?

目前在iTunes購買下載歌曲只能在iPod播放,就算微軟和Sony的網上音樂商店買歌,也只能下載至本身的Zune和Sony播放器內,但問題是直至去年底共售出9,000萬部iPod,從iTunes下載的歌曲有20億首,即平均每部下載22首,奈何調查發現大部分iPod早已儲滿1,000首歌曲的上限,即僅3%的歌曲從iTunes下載,其餘的又從何來呢?

他提出數據,指全球無DRM保護功能的歌曲(包括網上和CD形式)去年便售出200億首之多,根本是出售歌曲的主流銷售渠道,故即使保留DRM這個功能,亦根本不能阻擋盜版行為,建議倒不如取消這功能,讓MP3等其他播放器也可到iTunes買歌。

喬布斯的豪語令禤中怡感到有「無謂阻住地球轉」的感覺,全球用戶亦必舉腳贊成。實情是若進一步開放網絡,出售歌曲潛力便完全釋放出來,單賣軟件(歌曲)收益往往較賣硬件(iPod)為高,因歌曲熱賣周期較短,光顧次數定大幅增加,而且MP3數量應較iPod多,增長空間一目了然。

(2月8日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

At 6:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Central Blogger,

I have invested in some industrial stocks in HK, for instance, "567". The current and projected PEs are on the very low side. However, "567" is almost stagant. I do not trade that avidly. Should I sell the whole lot? Will that stock "567" ever have any upward movement and when? Does it have any potential? I am simply very bored with it. Hope you would kindly enlighten me. Many tks.

Regards,
Kingmccomber

 
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