Tuesday, January 30, 2007

替創業板獻計

雖然港股交投藉多隻巨無霸的內地銀行股登陸而大幅增加,但另一邊廂的創業板似乎備受冷落,即使去年12月成交額達33.3億元,比05年同期升1.2倍,但每日成交額不過是1.76億元。最大問題是上市公司只有199間,比05年的201間還少!港交所(388)正檢討創業板,考慮制定新方案。禤中怡的中環好友話,不想安排自己間公司在創業板上市,因為嫌麻煩。按照現時規定,創業板公司需每個季度公布業績,即一年做4次損益表,但創業板公司並非隻隻如新意網(8008)般坐擁巨額現金兼有雄厚背景的母公司(新鴻基地產(016))支持,差點連上市集資所得,都要保留部分用作應付這些上市成本,還談甚麼發展大計呢?

不過,創業板的角色並非無進步空間,可吸納來自創投基金的項目去刺激交投,和提升市場注意力。美國全國創投基金組織較早前亦進行調查,發現在200個受訪參與該類項目的投資者中,57%傾向將美國公司安排在海外上市,因為《薩賓斯-奧克斯利法案》(Sarbanes-Oxley Act)條例嚴苛,即打窒投資銀行為客戶於美國上市意欲。最近一間美國搜尋器服務商Accoona便準備於下月安排往類似香港創業板的英國AIM(Alternative Investment Market)上市,料市值達7億美元(約54.6億港元)。這間公司的主要股東是中國日報網站(Chinadaily.com),故寧可選擇英國這個政治敏感度較低的地區上市,而棄是非多多的美國市場。

此外,創投基金近年湧入內地「做世界」,散布「種子」,但面對如何「退出」(即藉安排公司上市,然後售股套現後,再另覓投資)這個問題顯得束手無策。雖然他們可考慮在內地股市上市集資,但有些創投人士更想在日本、香港和印度上市,所以港交所大員真的要趁勢搶生意,協助創投基金將項目在港上市。在競爭力方面,港交所除需考慮到股份流通和建立知名度外,也要注意內地,特別是來自上海的競爭,因為有投資銀行曾話在上海上市,分分鐘能以高達30倍,甚至40倍市盈率(PE)集資,較香港的13至15倍,或納斯達克(Nasdaq)的20倍還高,顯示他們也虎視眈眈。

港股成交縮水
港股成交額突然大為縮水,全日只有369.8億元,僅及日常約七、八成,似乎大家都有觀望氣氛,但港元匯價續弱,莫非有大戶轉移資金?或是製造偏淡,再挾淡倉?恒指全日上落波幅不過169點,顯然在期指結算前夕休戰,準備下月再搏鬥,收市微跌44點至20,236點。滙豐控股(005)和中國移動(941)帶動恒指跌81點。

中國移動面對單向收費挑戰,無疑是負面消息。儘管暫僅限於廣東省,最重要的地方是政府終首肯,不用再轉彎抹角去減價,這種趨勢無可避免會蔓延至其他省份。

單向收費的定義是接聽電話不用收費,其實這種收費制度在英國和澳洲早已存在,從負面看,營運商將少收接聽電話的費用收入,但好處是加強競爭力,進一步帶動從固網轉移至流動電話的替代效應(substitute effect)。由於內地幅員甚廣,相信這種風氣不會剎那間覆蓋全國,加上中國移動早已未雨綢繆拓展農村市場,與及來自數據服務收入上升,料影響有限。至於聯通炒作純粹受重組傳聞刺激,基本因素似乎未變。

中國人壽(2628)和中國工商銀行(1398)早已成下周五加入恒指成份股的頂頭大熱,而且前者「老頂」楊超留守大本營均屬好消息。奈何對股價依然無助,國壽仍跌0.2%至23.35元,而工行亦回落0.4%至4.57元收市。

(1月30日刊於《am730》)

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