Thursday, January 18, 2007

王維基變了 城電怎麼樣

最近市場傳聞,城市電訊(1137)有意賣盤,股價急升八成,不過好快大股東兼主席王維基(Ricky)一口否認有關傳聞,講明不會賣枱。禤中怡觀察城市電訊同香港寬頻好一段時間,從技術發展層面上,以現時其網絡實力,王維基或會找策略投資者,但你話佢會賣枱似乎又過份了一點。因為管理層在投資網絡基建多年,他們的思維應該是網絡正開始進入收成期。

幾年前大家都不明白為何城電投資一大筆錢,放棄無線網絡,改用一般電腦網絡線入屋。但現時透過該網絡,基本上將各大廈的路由器(router)及對外光纖升級,就可以提供任何服務,如瘋狂到可以1,000Mbps速度入屋,你話未來十幾年怎需再投資網絡基建,換言之,他未來理應是等待收成的時候。城電以往發展的無線網絡技術都並非報廢,之前該集團用無線網絡技術入屋,有經驗有設備。如香港要Wi-Fi化,哪個如該集團般有經驗呢?如WiMax變成4G標準,該技術似Wi-Fi多過似手機,城電隨時上得馬。公司這幾年積聚的技術實力,還是一種有形與無形資產。
不過,就如近日城電大肆宣傳的bb100及bb1000,都只是一種技術,一家公司的成敗,還是關係於很多管理以至公司營運問題的。而更重要的,是公司掌舵人的思維。

禤中怡研究公司的價值與前景時,第一項需要考慮的,就是企業文化(Company culture),過去,城電的文化及業務發展成敗,九成繫於王維基與張子建這對表兄弟的手裏。而兩者的分工,過去是十分清晰,王主外而張主內。故每次發動宣傳攻勢時,都會由Green Man(王維基曾說過綠色旺他,故他愛打綠領帶)主理,而他亦成功以電訊魔童以至殺價超人這些Ad Icon搶得市場注意。 不過,人是會老的,思想也會隨著年齡而改變,而這種改變對於一些管理權極度集中的公司來說,影響會更為明顯。

過去曾經聽過王維基做presentation的Banker或者基金經理不難都會對王維基的能言善辯、思路清晰及懂得觀察聆聽者反應等等,留下深刻印象。而他極有香港醒目仔影子的沙塵笑容表情,更是禤中怡記憶猶新的。

但從近年城電業績及王維基的舉動來說,可以看出這家公司正正與掌舵人一起進入了人生新階段,由於要大肆投資,城電這兩年也沒有好日子過,2005年度的貸款利息支出為5,450萬元,而2006年則為8,670萬元,而數字佔上這一年的虧損達到94%。

而同一期間,王維基對外言論也不知不覺間變得無甚火氣似的,過去經常引至競爭對手如電盈、九倉電訊呱呱叫的情況已不復見。禤中怡曾經在專欄中,提及過城電不應只集中由王維基一個人攬上身,要搞搞管理層分工,不過,並不是叫王先生從此就變成另一個人,甚至連高調性格也一下子轉變過去。

禤中怡不是心理學家,但突然看到王維基的轉變,自然想知多一點點,以便幫助了解城電在管理上的邏輯思維變化。近日側聞王維基在HKU Space裏進修,心想一個過去滿有自信,表現好像有點「天下我有」的人,為何突然會自覺不足而求學問呢?表面上這或能反映王維基心底裏一種渴求新知識想法,但從倒向思維出發,這也是自覺困局難解,以求在生意戰場以外的地方找尋新契機的解脫。

另一方面,從商場法則而論,城電在市場上的現有位置(position in the market),要說加價,其主導能力也為一個問題,上有電盈這個行業領導者,就連九倉電訊、有線寬頻(1097)以至和記寬頻,她們的舉動及市場反應,也不是城電可以完全忽視的。要談加價,可能只是一種自我感覺良好的條件反射而已。再者,如果行業前景及增長能力如此壯麗,那為何連李澤楷等坐擁市場主導地位的公司營運者,也曾想賣枱離場呢?

在於投資者的角度,城電是否賣枱並不重要,基金經理不是炒即日鮮的金魚缸散戶,就是升完可以再大升,這也是不會令我對該等公司重新評值的,反而公司管理層的種種蛛絲馬跡、公司發展以至行業大勢,才是一個價值投資者最關心的。

(1月18日刊於《am730》)

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