Thursday, January 11, 2007

iPhone一出誰與爭鋒

傳說中的Apple iPhone終於面世,在諸多揣測後推出的Apple iPhone,令到一眾本來被周公召喚的分析員兩眼放光。

為甚麼兩眼放光,除因iPhone外形靚,兼且夠薄外,更重要的是iPhone根本就是一部迷你Mac機,在不用輕觸筆此類礙手礙腳的工具支援下,可以做得到電腦所做的工作。而看來在OS X支持下,iPhone版的MSN、稍後甚至利用iPhone來看Bloomberg都可以,你話作為分析員,怎會不對iPhone兩眼放光呢。在北美地區,包兩年合約都只係大概四千港元,正使用Windows Mobile的朋友睇完公布已經大喊被搵笨。所以遠東地區的分析員捱眼瞓都好,都想睇睇Steve Jobs的現場表演才心安。

蘋果公司股價亦在Apple iPhone推出後,即升8.5%,未有實質收益,已收帳面富貴之效,更有很多紐約交易員,一手落盤掃蘋果股票,一手想著FCC(美國聯邦通訊委員會)批准iPhone上市,即刻去掃貨。不過,手提電話龍頭大廠Nokia與Sony Ericsson亦不會即時面臨重大威脅,因為遠東市場於08年才推出iPhone,看來是因需要解決3G WCDMA技術問題有關,然而在美國市場推出後,外形「薯到爆」的手機就應該會於市場消失。不過,如果上述兩間公司闊佬懶理,不認真急謀對策的話,高檔的手機消費市場就會被蘋果佔據,而低檔市場又要同中國公司鬥平,以後發展的路途真是會很難行。至於正使用Windows Mobile作業系統的廠商,固然已經宣布不再玩,使用Palm OS的公司,包括Palm公司,與及香港的權智(601),看來前景亦會出現一片灰濛的景象,當iPhone價錢貼近Treo時,的確會有「用蔗渣的價錢,食到隻燒鵝」的感覺。屆時還有誰會有興趣買Palm OS的Smartphone?不過iPhone幾大威脅都好,功能多多的Blackberry估計暫時都未必會受好大打擊,因為很多商務客始終要依靠push mail搵食,大家雖然知道iPhone的好處,亦未必冒風險貿然轉電話。但Blackberry看來都要搵新技術亮點,因為當電話可以強如iPhone時,大家就會將Blackberry當作call機用,而call機的下場,大家都好清楚。

越南銀行業大有可為
雖然中資金融股近期氣焰略減,但新興市場的銀行股吸引力著實不低,連去年新興市場升幅王越南也獲資金追捧銀行股。

究竟市場有多大?且看Visa國際夥ACNielsen分別於當地河內和胡志明市訪問1,000人的結果便可略知大概。原來他們向銀行借錢比例甚低,僅佔受訪者2%,大部分寧儲起錢,或向親朋戚友借錢購買貴重物品,皆因以為向銀行借錢十分複雜,利息亦受限制,故寧願另覓方法解決財務問題。此外,有一個有趣現象,竟然有高達58%受訪者話自己根本不夠錢去銀行開設戶口,與一般發達國家的中產人士對銀行服務有一定需求不同,或許與缺乏保安心理影響所致,即可能覺得銀行不夠穩妥。

至於大家視為正常不過的自動櫃員機服務的認知度在當地亦有91%,但一談到信用卡和記帳卡,認知度即急降至20%和8%,相信亦因對銀行認識有限,連戶口都無,怎知甚麼是信用卡呢?那麼對越南人而言,甚麼是「最安全的投資」?答案很簡單:黃金和外幣也。以上可見,大家必認為市場有限,但對樂觀的投資者而言,肯定大喊發展空間龐大,市場滲透率低,增長勢必迅速。由於前途無限,多間銀行紛紛考慮增資擴股,並吸引外資吸納,但目前只有4間銀行出售股份給外資金融機構,如ACB(譯作亞洲商業銀行)股價已較面值升近16倍,是不是很吸引?

(1月11日刊於《am730》)

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