Wednesday, January 10, 2007

滙控派息反惹英倫股民不滿

甚麼是一沉百踩?且看滙豐控股(005)近日股價疲弱,過去一年股價跑輸大市和同業、公司管理層的管治水平慘遭炮轟,美國業務面對前所未有的挑戰,增長前景未有方向,更被證券界連環降低投資評級和目標股價,加上其他對手表現突出,更加突顯「大笨象」風光不再。

英國《金融時報》最近訪問完主席葛霖後,亦繼《每日電訊報》、《泰晤士報》後,加入炮轟團隊。該報指英國的滙控股東好慘,皆因收取的股息大幅縮水,勢必增加該集團提高末期股息的壓力。其實滙控並非減少派息,但為甚麼亦招來不滿呢?

原來該股與其他銀行的派息政策不同,一向按美元為計算股息單位,奈何英鎊兌美元表現秀麗,而美元匯價兌全球貨幣皆相形失色,兌英鎊匯價於較去年已累跌9%,當匯價折算回英鎊後就出現問題。

若果以美元為貨幣單位,其實該股派發的06年度股息較05年上升7%,對以美元為掛鈎的港元匯價計算,香港股民收取的股息應問題不大。不過不要忽視的是,滙控約50%股份登記原來全來自英倫,實在得罪不得。

究竟影響有多大,原來根據今年1月18日派發的06年度第三期中期股息,英國股東實際可收取每股7.759便士,較去年同期的7.792便士少約0.4%,銀行亦變相少付2,800萬英鎊(約4.2億港元)予股東,認真有著數!

由於滙控估計坐擁約200億美元(約1,560億港元)資本盈餘帳,大眾英倫股民自然要向葛霖施壓,希望收多一點股息以彌補跑輸大市的損失,有分析員更預測該股於3月5日公布全年業績時,恐怕要把末期股息大幅增加11%方可。

不過,若果美元匯價日後轉強,而相對英鎊匯價轉弱,英國的小股東又會否因從美元轉換為英鎊而多收股息,繼而炮轟滙控多付股息對公司營運有影響呢?

金融風暴由信用社形成
金融風暴隨時由城市和農村合作社形成?

談起銀行執笠,除了台灣中華商業銀行執笠,令到當地經濟「一鑊泡」外,中國最近都有銀行執笠。當然執笠的銀行並非四大商業銀行那麼有實力的,而是城市信用社。上周內地傳出江西省撫州市有間城市信用社執笠,還好政府講明存戶可以在幾個月後拿回十足存款,不至於渣都無。

據禤中怡一位熟悉中國金融市場的朋友講,國務院已經在去年7月發出文件,要整頓基層信用社,因為基層信用社會提供比較高的息率,吸納農民存款,然後將存款借予一些中小型工廠,以及農民,其實經營風險頗高,加上信用社的資本額,多數得幾億至幾十億元人民幣,一個問題貸款,分分鐘連渣都無。所以整頓信用社的大方向,本來是正確的。

不過,問題是管理信用社的地方政府,欠缺如中央政府般,具備雄厚財力,可以透過開設幾間資產管理公司,將信用社的爛帳如四大國有銀行般,實行用公家錢將爛帳從信用社剝離出來,然後執靚盤數,將一堆信用社和地方銀行合併,甚至上市。你話執得一間信用社,政府就可以全數賠償,如果多發生幾宗執笠事件,地方政府能否具實力應付呢?若果力有不逮,日後找誰人埋單呢?

更嚴重的大問題是,目前究竟全國信用社將資金投放於地產項目身上,或一些存在有問題的政府發展項目呢?而在香港上市的國有銀行,又有參與貸款予信用社,如果信用社因資不抵債而執笠,豈不是另一枚計時炸彈?

除了城市信用社,農村信用社亦面對同樣問題,中國銀行業監督管理委員會副主席唐雙寧曾指出,目前農村合作金融機構還存在很多風險隱患,主要是由於這類金融機構的管理原因,信息傳導比較緩慢,應對經驗和應變能力相對不足,部分農村合作金融機構不能適應宏觀調控和產業政策要求,盲目將貸款投放於主要商業銀行已逐步退出的領域和行業;少數地方政府對信貸投放的行政干預明顯增多,導致農村合作金融機構被迫增加「政績工程」、「形象工程」和受到限制的行業信貸投放,而且在信貸結構不合理情況下,固定資產等中長期貸款增長較快;貸款集中風險不斷增加,票據和債券投資業務風險續提升,引致金融案件時有發生;部分地區農村合作金融機構的信貸擴張不斷澎脹。

千萬不要小看信用社對金融市場的威脅,因為過往台灣最有問題的金融機構,很大部分都是來自信用社。對於世界幾間大銀行都總有分行在左近,十幾年都未經歷過擠提潮的香港人,怎會想像到中國有那麼多存款放在一些「牙煙到震」的信用社。儘管人民幣不斷升值都好,對金融監管不夠健全的國家,投資時也要打醒十二分精神。

(1月10日刊於《am730》)

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