Tuesday, January 09, 2007

太子奶將成蒙牛第二?

香港進一步發展金融市場,中資股將扮演更吃重角色,畢竟香港具份量的大公司已掛牌多時,相反內地空間無限大,每年也跑幾隻巨無霸來港上市,還記得去年新股升幅王玖龍紙業(2689)嗎?所以禤中怡認為多點動察內地企業動向,分分鐘能在熱炒中資股中早著先機,例如中國蒙牛乳業(2319)除了股民認識外,形象亦應已深入民心,皆因該集團的奶類製品早已進入各大超市,藉此提升曝光率,而下一個要認識的就是「太子奶」。

湖南太子奶集團是內地乳酸菌奶飲料集團,資產30億元(人民幣,下同),員工逾1萬多人。從這些數字看,似乎欠缺特別,但若果了解到該集團原來已透過私人配售股份方式,獲英國英聯、摩根士丹利、高盛聯手,向太子奶集團在海外成立的中國太子奶(開曼)控股有限公司注資7,300萬美元(約5.69億港元),相信大家要多加留意,因為絕對是蒙牛商業模式的翻版新作。原來這群私人投資基金如英聯、摩根士丹利曾攜手香港鼎輝,成功推動蒙牛上市,並在短短3年內獲巨額回報。以蒙牛昨日收市20.15元,較該股04年招股價3.925元計,回報4.1倍,收穫甚豐,難怪今次食髓知味,同樣是乳業,摩根士丹利、英聯再次入股太子奶,怎能不是製造第二個蒙牛。太子奶集團目前已在全國30多個省市、260多個大中城市、3000多個縣建立經銷網絡,直接參與太子奶營銷的人員達400萬人,反映該集團已建立一定規模,並非虛有其表。集團主席李途純曾說到未來10年發展構想:連續五年產銷翻一番,到09年產值達到240億元。預留一年調整期後,要在2014年集團總產值達到1,000億元。

太子奶早已有上市打算,相信獲大賓架入股後,只要稍作整理便可上市集資配合其發展大計。高盛投資基金亞太區董事總經理、著名經濟學家胡祖六向內地傳媒說過青睞太子奶,是基於中國乳業市場在不久的將來發生根本變化,普通奶消費量將呈下降趨勢,而乳酸菌奶消費量將呈直線上升趨勢,乳酸菌奶在國外乳業市場佔據很大市場佔有率,而太子奶在中國乳酸菌奶飲料市場佔72.8%。未知香港稍後會否見到太子奶產品銷售呢?

力霸破產玩殘全台灣
自國際商業信貸銀行執笠事件後,香港很久沒有出現過「銀行擠提」了。台灣最近就有家族企業連環執笠事件,導致銀行擠提及被政府接管,大銀行、大企業面對成堆爛帳等手尾仍待跟進。事緣台灣力霸集團和嘉新食品化纖兩間公司突向台北地方法院申請重整(亦即美國的破產保護令),暫時不還債。據兩間公司向台北地方法院的入稟狀,兩公司共欠債約400億新台幣(接近百億港元),難怪要申請破產。公司欠債,旗下中華商業銀行隨即「擠提」,短短幾日超過210億元新台幣(約50億港元)被客戶提走,嚴重失血下,台灣政府屬下存款保險公司即動用金融重建基金將銀行「國有化」,以保護存戶利益。但存戶利益受保障不代表無手尾,首先很多公私營銀行貸款給力霸集團,如兆豐金控旗下兆豐銀行已貸款54億新台幣給力霸,還有一些DRAM廠買力霸的債券,突然市場多了約400多億新台幣爛帳,人人有份,台灣股市未來半年表現似乎難以看好。至於力霸公子王令麟控制的東森電視台及東森房屋則未受波及,但東森與力霸之間曾有不少資產交易,究竟是否涉及資產轉移實在有待調查。看來台灣法務部查緝黑金中心將十分忙碌。雖說香港監管比台灣好,但同系公司交叉持股,友好公司之間的債務及一些表面無關係,實際上有父子關係的關連交易全部都可能是計時炸彈。看上市公司年報及公告時,一定要打醒十二分精神。

(1月9日刊於《am730》)

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