Friday, January 26, 2007

史美倫的中國觀

史美倫是香港股壇的另類人物,查太多年來都是擔任著球證(股市監管機構高層)的角色,在香港這個世界矚目的黃金地,她可能不如很多二、三線上市公司主席般收入豐厚,但她的工作表現,獲得的卻是連金錢也不輕易買到的───名聲。

已卸任中國證監會副主席多時的她雖已重回香港服務,在特區政府做行政會議成員,但對內地股市有其獨特見解。禤中怡今日做文抄公,節錄她接受《南方周末》的訪問,讓大家分享。

對於內地股市上升,史美倫話指數總會有上落,別說中國內地是個新興市場,美國那麼成熟的市場,2000年時它的科技股泡沫也是很大,當時也有人出來呼籲是不是有些瘋狂啦、不理性啦。當然,也要考慮到有些投資者是無知的,入市以後可能承受不了風險,將來後果比較嚴重。

被問到她在任時很關心投資者教育,現在很多中小投資者入市,甚至傾注自己的全部(財富),她指現在很多人看到了指數不斷向上,沒想到有下跌的一天,可能他冒著的風險是他不能承擔的,賺的那幾天當然很好,但(過去)股市垮了的話,承受不了就去找政府。她認為應該讓投資者知道風險在哪裡,誰應該承擔責任,泡沫總有一天會破的,中國證監會不可能處理那麼多的,有些也不該由它承擔,這就是投資者教育。

她認為去年中國資本市場最大變化是A股加H股同時上市,很高興證監會有決心走出這一步。不過,前兩年時,內地投資者對大型企業股份很有保留,感覺會把指數壓低,當時她卻認為這類股份有好的質量,投資者的信心就會自自然然地出現,事實亦證明了她的眼光。史美倫指中國銀行(3988)發行A股時,內地認受性很強,反映好的企業大家還是有信心的。

史美倫在內地任職時,有學者形容中國股市連賭場都不如。違規罰則過輕,助長歪風。她認為和以前比,現在信心來了,整個市場的氛圍好了,做改革也容易。但不能說現在就沒有問題,誰也不敢說以後沒有醜聞發生。但她倒對違規事件不感驚訝,只是驚訝於事件的深度和廣度。她指香港也有醜聞,可是香港的地方小,只要坐在中環,所有的公司都能看得到,可是在北京,你能看到遼寧、陝西、山西和雲南的公司嗎?所以中國證監會的工作也比較複雜,要考慮的事情也比較多。她又覺得現時內地上市公司的質量問題、高管人員「圈錢」、大股東佔用上市公司資金仍然很嚴重,但證監會現在也很重視這些問題。至於執法也很重要,因為監管的含義就是制定法律和執行法律,為市場提供比較清楚(clear)、確定(certain)的法律,不能朝令夕改。

她於04年9月13日因健康問題辭去中國證監會副主席,無獨有偶,隨後兩日滬指大漲,認真諷刺,但回首過去,她認為留給證券市場的是“三公”(公開、公平、公正)。

內地股市能夠重生,禤中怡認為總有她的一份功勞。

花旗看工業股
花旗近期似乎忙於出研究報告,繼日前為保險股「把脈」,亦有探討工業股,包括將停牌待公布配股的理文造紙(2314)給予「買入」評級,目標價22.8元,較停牌前報價19.52元高16.8%,但未知配股後股價會否受壓。至於福田(420)亦獲花旗垂青,將評級調高至「買入」及目標價2.8元,以反映其盈利復甦及全年核心盈利升27%,可惜該股未受消息刺激,重挫6.7%至2.63元。但管理層指廣東生產設施受環保問題影響,令東莞廠房減產三分一,實質總產能減九分一。不過,從此事可見內地實施環保政策對其他工業股亦可能構成影響,投資者不容忽視。

(1月26日刊於《am730》)

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