Thursday, February 01, 2007

虛擬貨幣換人民幣?

全球最大電子拍賣網站eBay突然宣布,今後將禁止將網絡遊戲中的人物、貨幣、武器、帳號等虛擬財產在其於美國和英國的網站進行拍賣,實行與虛擬世界割席,影響非同小可。不要小看這個虛擬世界的經濟規模,市場估計虛擬貨幣的規模已高達2.5億至8.8億美元(約19.5億至68.6億港元),而且正不斷擴展,可見eBay將失去這個增長空間。

eBay的解釋是,由於虛擬物品的交易所涉及的法律問題非常複雜,故率先禁止在美英的網站進行有關交易,而禁止買賣物品的網絡遊戲包括World of Warcraft和City of Heroes等。

至於內地幸好未受影響。據資料顯示,中國網上遊戲產業於06年有3,112萬名用戶,帶來65.4億元人民幣收入,絕對不是一個細市場。但內地已衍生很多問題,如最近騰訊(700)因其聊天工具QQ帳號、電子貨幣「Q幣」在淘寶網被大量低價出售,向淘寶網發出律師信,要求對方「停止侵權」,淘寶網卻先向法院提出,要求法院確認無權刪除此類買賣資訊,也沒有侵犯騰訊的產權。
最近更有人建議設立虛擬貨幣制度,連中國人民銀行也注視,還準備制定電子貨幣管理辦法,原來內地有人提出可將虛擬貨幣轉換為人民幣的建議,難怪央行也要插手!有內地服務商已關注這問題,如騰訊早前夥盛大等網上遊戲供應商提出要求制定虛擬財產法,保障用戶權益。

分析認為,目前在虛擬商品交易中,時有發生欺詐現象,處理虛擬商品交易投訴比實物交易更麻煩,而且虛擬貨物交易已產生一些副作用,如透過交易進行洗黑錢活動,加上未來遊戲商及政府將加強監管這類虛擬商品交易,例如南韓正審議法例,管制有關虛擬貨幣,所以eBay為免日後面對更多問題,先下手為強,撤出這個市場。

有趣的是,虛擬社區這種網上活動卻不包括在今次的禁止範圍內,即受歡迎的第二人生(Second Life)這個虛擬活動未受影響。ebay認為第二人生並非遊戲,而是一個「真實」的經濟環境,或許eBay在第二人生內開設eBay網站,便可解決這個問題!

嘉里關連交易的疑惑
部分零售股炒農曆新年銷情理想,無視恒指重挫,逆市造好。獲證券商看好的利福國際(1212)全日即升3%至23.45元,迫近新高。賣鞋的利信達(738)就更厲害,單日彈升15.6%至2.07元,亦創一年新高,成交額逾3,300萬元,成交股數大增逾4倍!該集團後來話原來正初步磋商售物業發展附屬公司,可能有春江鴨吧!另一賣鞋的美麗寶(1179)也微增0.9%。

由於今年寒冬似乎未有為服裝股帶來商機,畢竟天氣未算太凍,價格較高的大褸銷情恐怕難樂觀,故佐丹奴(709)略升0.47%,堡獅龍(592)和佑威(627)均跌逾1%。

不過,並非有好消息就會有好表現。嘉里建設(683)以逾8,000萬元賣兩個何文田豪宅單位便賺逾4,000萬元,奈何股價卻敵不過大市向下,全日亦要下挫2.9%至36.6元。

奇怪的是,買入該兩個單位的豪客就是嘉里建設大股東嘉里控股。若果純為該項目「托價」,製造成交呎價逾1.88萬元的紀錄,為日後開售設下底線的做法,似乎無需大股東親自出馬;如大股東看好後市,亦不用揀旗下公司的樓盤。更重要的是,雙方在談判時,究竟應照顧哪方面利益,如叫價太貴,大股東又不化算,叫價太低,又損害小股東利益,單是如何平衡利益已十分困難,除非這兩個單位真的有非買不可的迫切性,否則只會徒添猜測。

(2月1日刊於《am730》)

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