Wednesday, February 07, 2007

泰興光學股東空歡喜

還記得工業股中的明星股泰興光學(389)嗎?相信正炒得熱烘烘的散戶應忘記了這間公司,轉投中資股懷抱。該集團已進入除牌程序第三階段,若於6月13日前仍沒有「白武士」拯救,恐怕將要失去上市地位。

當然,做股東的希望收回些少成本,甚至藉恢復股份買賣後沽貨甩身。不過,清盤人向投資者潑了一盤冷水,表示正處理及變賣資產,並在可能情況下向債權人派發中期攤還債款,但鑑於泰興資金不足,目前不可能向股東分配資產,且出售大部分資產外,帳目亦存在不正規因素,故亦無意申請復牌,即泰興股東只能保留股票作紀念。

曾幾何時,泰興光學以眼鏡龍頭股吸引基金入市,成功將規模膨脹,甚至展開海外收購行動,引致債台高築亦不警覺,才會出現資不抵債的惡果。有會計界朋友指,一般被清盤人接管後,能夠找買家的機會有限,相反陷入萬劫不復的境地可能性較大,因他們對營運興趣始終不大,索性清貨離場,債權人能夠收回些少已算萬幸,即使削髮(hair cut,即削債)也在所不計,收不到的部分只好撇帳。

禤中怡一向推崇企業和個人都要注意現金流,即資金流出之前,亦需有足夠資金從業務營運中流入,而非靠借錢去應付,生意才能做不完,企業和個人也可立於不敗之地。不過,並非與銀行斷絕關係,借錢融資乃平常不過的事,只需小心控制貸款佔流動資產比率便屬安全,即特別留意手頭現金狀況,可隨時變現資產如股票、基金投資和定期存款等,究竟多少才算安全,則視乎企業和個人財政情況而定,最重要是不能出現資不抵債,因為單是償還利息已蠶蝕所有收入時,本身已構成風險。

那麼泰興光學的財務總監和董事會成員是否忽視這點而如此不濟呢?其實,正當公司擴充時,總會左右手都有一籃子鴻圖大計,疏忽業務日常營運。所以這個案子值得其他企業管理層警惕,避免重蹈覆轍。

金魚缸邊曾經有這樣一個故事。有公司配售新股集資,本來認購尚算不俗,尚欠些少便完成,但最終竟然告吹,「新水」無法流入,即惹來債權人注意,結局令人欷歔!

港交所要見104元?
花旗又出口術,大幅調高香港交易所(388)目標價,由80.5元增至104元,即市盈率33倍,較全球交易所股份有33%溢價。同時將其今明兩年每股盈利預測調高29%,以反映成交量較預期強勁等因素。該股昨日便升1.8%至87.3元收市。

花旗認為港股每日平均成交量可望由原來預測370億元調升至470億元,明年更達540億元,因新股集資仍強勁,已計劃年內集資金額估計超過150億美元(約1,050億港元),包括一些內地金融機構繼續來港上市,所以即使部分國企股回內地發行A股上市,短期不會影響香港股市的集資氣氛。

港交所剛好公布今年1月平均每日成交額達575億元新高,似乎比預測更理想,當中股份和窩輪總成交分別較去年12月大增39%和47.8%,升幅驚人,但需注意去年12月屬年尾,基金經理或已完成全年目標而減少買賣,加上有聖誕節假期,令交易日數相對減少。雖然股市能否持續暢旺仍受很多不明朗因素影響,但多隻巨無霸的內地銀行登陸港股後,無疑提升交投,而且近來二三線股也加入炒賣,的確令人憧憬這門獨市生意「收錢收到手軟」。

(2月7日刊於《am730》)

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