Friday, February 09, 2007

大笨象腳軟了

投資股民稱為「大笨象」的滙豐控股(005)腳軟了,美國業務終現形,儘管未至天塌下來,但股市已遭大象跪一跪拖累,被期指淡友噬了一大啖而開市便大瀉逾360點。不過,滙控畢竟是一間優質的環球企業,為香港股民提供一個不錯的投資選擇,更應注視企業營運表現。

雖然滙控聲稱因美國業務壞帳數字較預期為高,其他業務仍符合預期,但可以預見當地業務已存在管理上的問題,否則以該集團的營商智慧,難有理由出現這種情況,究竟是主席交替影響,還是在其他執行方面出現困難呢?其實,企業規模龐大,一向是管理高層感頭痛的問題,因為除了上情下達的程序繁複外,如何應付周邊沒完沒了的問題就更叫人懊惱。雖然集團主席和董事的職責或多以制定策略、監察執行為主,但面對全球化趨勢,不能單看一面就可睇通全局。

當規模膨脹,業務單位隨時變成瘋狂野馬,根本難以駕馭。還記得TCL多媒體(1070)與湯姆遜(Thomson)組成合資後,便出現過顧此失彼的情況,集中處理美國業務的同時,亦忽略了歐洲地區業務,變成日漸失控和惡化,最終走向重組,又要賣廠,又要裁員等,但問題是這種陣痛比一般企業日常重組要嚴重,復元時間亦較長。

禤中怡看過IBM前董事長葛斯納(Louis V. Gestner)的一本管理書籍「誰說大象不會跳舞」(Who Says Elephants Can’t Dance),與今日的場面有點相近,只是當時IBM更陷水深火熱而已,因為在1993年,IBM虧損160億美元(約1,248億港元),經營岌岌可危,主因是受到本身龐大「笨重」的身軀、與世隔絕的文化影響。

那麼當時葛斯納如何化解呢?一般美國企管都會選擇分拆、賣資產等較極端而見效較快的手段,但他卻決定維持公司組織結構的完整,加強管理去改善業務,重建科技界王者地位。

滙控總裁紀勤話要加強管理,正好反映核心問題,若果新管理層能重新走回正確軌道,高層多注意基層運作,相信在經濟逆轉時,也可發揮抵禦作用,讓股東安心繼續騎著大笨象,而坊間傳聞大笨象股價在138元有支持,究竟是入市訊號,抑或是另有部署?

國壽工行能否染藍看今天
恒指服務公司今日檢討成分股組合,若決定加入中國人壽(2628)和中國工商銀行(1398)的話,上述大笨象的比重將進一步淡化,多隻中資股支配恒指格局成形。

其實,昨日單是中國移動(941)、建設銀行(939)兩隻重磅股便已帶動恒指升逾100點,收復失地有餘。

另一隻不能忽視的就是業績不俗的思捷環球(330),最高更曾升破90元關口,並貼近高位收市,報89.1元,單日升7.35%,增6.1元,成交額逾11億元,相信除了股息吸引外,每手股份將大幅減至100股,意味又可以炒過,但投資者需注意股份拆細只代表每手入場費下降,集團基本因素如市盈率維持不變。

大價股造好,細價股自然更瘋癲。新世界數碼(276)買蒙古煤礦外,大股東魯連城亦認購7.8億股新股,每股僅0.285元,籌2.2億元外,新世界發展(017)鄭裕彤夥兒子鄭家純私人認購4億股新股,同時配售給其他投資者共11億股新股,但難明的是,配股價卻僅0.24元,與魯連城認購價還低15.7%。股份復牌後輕易成為升幅榜首位,全日急彈1.55倍!股價收市見0.69元,單日增0.42元,更有逾4億股轉手,可見彤叔威力並不下於亞洲股神李兆基!

(2月9日刊於《am730》)

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