Wednesday, February 14, 2007

李嘉誠的好拍擋

和記黃埔(013)今年度業績相信不用愁,因旗下和記電訊國際(2332)成功賣仔予VODAFONE(VOD),套現逾859億元,獲利金額逾750億元,有助抵銷3G業務連連燒錢的負面影響,信貸評級機構亦開始對和黃評級改觀。該股昨收報80.9元,較過去52周新高83元,低約2.5%。

其實VOD同和黃主席李嘉誠可算是交易好拍檔,皆因1999年VOD就是讓李先生的橙(ORANGE)在一夜之間變成大金蛋。當年李先生將英國2G流動電話業務ORANGE44.81%股權以1,130億元先售予德國曼內斯曼(Mannesmann,MMN),藉以取得MMN一成股權和大筆現金後,獲利1,130億元。後來VOD提出與MMN合併,和黃又拿一筆現金兼轉持VOD股份,令和黃整個「賣橙」行動所獲收益超過1,700億元,亦埋下再戰3G的雄心壯志。VOD今次又與李先生交手自然駕輕就熟,李先生亦樂於交易。

問題是,去年印度流動通訊業務最終無法如願上市,李先生為何不多等待一會,分拆該業務上市,藉股價上升去提高整體企業價值,寧願趁有買家出手之際,即大手沽貨,似乎對後市有點看淡成份,因為印度市場之大,且持續高速發展,相信無任何一個商家會抗拒,而李先生選擇放手,可能為前景作準備,畢竟經濟有上有落,有錢在手不用擔心突發事件,而且對投資者、銀行都有交代,大家亦不用再擔心錢銀問題,即使英國和意大利3G業務今年不上市亦對盈利影響不大。

至於如何運用這筆巨款,料成為投資銀行的研究新課題,稍後或者會傳出和黃看中那個投資機會;可能拓展新業務,甚至有收購等等,皆因投資銀行要搵飯吃,當然要不停獻計,希望有一兩個投資機會被看中的話,年尾花紅才有著落嘛!投資者今年要多加留意和黃了。

至於近年新興市場熾熱,加上和電國際已建立一定規模,新買家VODAFONE必然用銀彈搶市場過來,因為即時可以擁有一盤大生意,與全球27個國家共1.98億名用戶(截至去年12月底)融合,輕易突破2億名客戶外,更可藉此提升協同效應,如大批訂購手機、網絡設備等,或者可將電話服務中心集中在印度,應付其他英語系國家客戶的需要,提升盈利率。至於VODAFONE主席龐約翰相信大家都耳熟能詳,因他就是前滙豐控股(005)主席,在位期間就是帶領獅子銀行南征北討開拓基業,包括進軍新興市場,最經典的莫過於入股平安保險(2318)和交通銀行(3328)兩項交易,估不到今次又將VODAFONE帶入新增長空間,難怪股價即彈2%沖喜。

細價股亂炒

本地金魚缸的細價股炒得不亦樂乎,的確有點牛市步向尾聲的感覺,皆因大市從藍籌股起步,中資股接力後,二三線股跟隨瘋狂,差點連窩輪都拋諸腦後。禤中怡又要發出警號,不要貪勝不知輸,嚴守止蝕,而更重要的是要先分析股份背景,避免成莊家點心。

不要以為只有散戶才揀細價股來亂炒,其實身經百戰的也有出錯時。例如昨日珠江輪胎(1187)股價突然急升2.33倍至1.87元全日最高位收市,大家查問這隻全日升幅稱冠的股份何以有此優越表現之際,原來是交易商錯誤輸入買賣盤,引致發生一宗錯誤交易,當中涉及1萬股,每股作價就是1.87元。

再查看紀錄,原來全日就僅有這一宗錯誤交易而已。這隻股份似乎備受冷落,在過去12個月,僅有11個交易日錄得成交,而今年以來更只有1日成交3萬股,莫非各股東們對該股鍾愛有加,不願沽售?

(2月13日刊於《am730》)

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