Monday, February 12, 2007

新葡京開張賭業股再炒

昨日何賭王有喜事,全香港中文報章頭版都被何賭王包下了。中怡下午從深圳回港時,發現原來連國內知名報章《南方都市報》的第三版亦是新葡京的廣告,連奉行共產主義的祖國亦接受玩番兩手這一套,國家開放程度真的不能看輕。說回賭業股,近期炒作不算十分熾熱,但可預期何賭王今年把旗下賭場業務上市,極有可能再次成為市場炒作賭業股的最佳理由。

現時在澳門參與投資的本港上市公司股份,主要分為三類,第一類就是直接經營博彩或相關業務,如信德(242)旗下澳博、新濠(200)和銀河娛樂(027)均擁有博彩經營權,直接設賭場及提供其他娛樂休閒設施。若單從數據分析,新濠市盈率(PE)達31.8倍,上周五收市價16.62元,與52周高位24.5元比較已跌約32%,而銀河娛樂是這3家公司中PE最低者,只有7.9倍,現價8.75元已十分貼近52周高位8.8元。至於信德PE看起來高得驚人,達66.3倍,現價11.6元與52周高位比較(12.64元)相差不遠。

分析這幾家公司,若從PE計算的話,根本沒有甚麼頭緒,如果以為銀河PE低就認為抵買的話,就真是十分搞笑。禤中怡求教澳門好友,他雖然不是金魚缸中人,但其所見所聞,可能比較香港財經分析員更有參考價值。他認為經過金沙、永利的思想衝擊後,葡京已作一定程度變革,以員工制度為例,現在旗下賭場都陸續增設員工飯堂,作為員工福利,而且3家賭場的薪酬在一輪「搶人戰」後,已經愈拉愈近,預期何賭王已經適應了老外們的招數,戰情應說屬於勢均力敵。(據說金沙亦已把投注下限由最初的300元調低至100元,證明3家大賭場競爭激烈,沒有哪一方佔著絕對優勢。)

另一方面,炒分拆者亦是利好信德股價的一大願景,從投資基金的角度而言,若在香港市場要揀選大型賭業股,除了何賭王以外,其實可說沒有太多選擇,在「買股要揀龍頭」的投資金律之下,信德之貴也是不無道理的。還有一點值得注意的,是信德未來發展,坊間經常傳出何家小姐有意到美國開賭,雖然好事多磨,但有期望對於一家上市公司而言,始終是好事,故信德有點概念成份。

反觀銀河,澳門好友沒有太多評語,原來在澳門人心目中,銀河不大入流,現下只有星際酒店和4個較小型的娛樂場,至於其位於路氹城的賭場度假村要到2008年,才將落成。而現時銀河的角色,自然會被視為二線賭業股,故此其市場策略及定位都並不如主流賭場般主動,股價前景反而不如何賭王旗下公司般有願景。再加上該公司的宣傳廣告手法老土,就是用上影帝梁朝偉,拍出來也「行貨」得可以;在外國大賭場事事講求華麗包裝的賭業營運法則之下,銀河確實有點失色。

至於新濠小賭王目前最需要面對的,是如何令投資界對他增添信心,如早前金沙(Las Vegas Sands)公布業績,市場佔有率由19.5%下調至16.4%,有說是受到永利及銀河旗下星際酒店開幕影響,其後中銀國際發表報告,關注新濠旗下項目「澳門皇冠」賭場面對競爭等問題,報告更不排除調低目標價評級。人家生意麻麻,結果是小賭王受累,顯然市場對這位市場參與者的競爭力如何尚有疑問,投資最講求信心,而信心就建基於往績,相信小賭王未來一段日子,還是需要交出成績來服眾。另一方面,除了生意營運外,公司形象(指在投資市場上)亦十分重要,小賭王的地位在大鱷林立的賭業市場而言,顯然還需加把勁。

至於像遠東發展(035)這類公司屬第二類,主要參與當地酒店業務,項目提供的博彩設施則由其他擁有賭權的牌照持有人負責,雙方或採取分帳形式合作。澳門實德(487)亦如遠東發展般發展大型酒店項目外,亦透過貸款等方式投資顯羅皇殿博彩中介人業務。至於黃金集團(1031)亦擁有兩間具備賭場設施酒店。

第三類主要投資當地房地產業務,如恒基地產(012)、合和實業(054)、華人置業(127)、澳門祥泰地產(199)和保利達資產(208)等擁有土地儲備,發展住宅項目。故此,身在香港的股民們,大概也應有心理準備及自行作出深入分析,以迎接另一次賭業股炒作潮的來臨。

(2月13日刊於《am730》)

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