Friday, March 02, 2007

保險股尋寶開始

甚麼是虎父無犬子?看見李嘉誠領導的和黃(013)藉出售印度流動電話業務而大賺後,兒子李澤楷亦不甘示弱,出讓盈科保險(065)予來自比利時的金融機構富通集團,齊齊「骨水」去也。

據統計資料顯示,直至去年第三季度,在香港保險業排名中,10間保單數量最大的保險公司中,只有盈科保險屬只在香港經營保險業務的上市公司,而友邦、國衛和宏利(945),甚至滙豐和恒生等,其保險業務都是具國際性範圍或只屬集團其中一項業務,故想併購壯大業務,又想即時見效的話,盈科保險成為不二之選,因該集團排名第7位,市場佔有率約4.1%,可以讓新買家快速進佔市場。

其實,香港上市的保險公司有好幾間,似乎隨著今次達成交易,又可為投資者提供尋寶機會,看看哪一隻會成獵物。細心一看,上市的內地保險公司如中國人壽(2628)等規模龐大,加上有國家做股東的背景,要成為下一隻被併購的目標絕對不易。至於宏利金融這間國際性保險公司體積亦非同小可,亦不易吞下。

不過,要找從事保險業務的影子股亦有一些選擇,但需注意公司的業務性質,因為保險行業分為人壽和一般保險業務,前者所售賣的當然包括近期熱賣的投資相連壽險產品等,客戶投保年期較長,而進入該市場的規限亦較大。至於一般保險則主要包括如旅行保險、財產保險等,投保往往屬一次性,且競爭多以價格做焦點,故兩者業務略有不同。以規模而言,大新金融(440)自分拆大新銀行(2356)上市後,大新金融本身專注保險業務,並且藉收購進軍澳門保險市場。截止去年6月底其保險業務稅前盈利便增長42%至1億元,奈何仍持有大新銀行股權,保險業務的內涵價值難全面反映,並非純保險股。

中保國際(966)屬一隻綜合保險股,主要持有於內地註冊的太平人壽50.05%股權,該公司經營人壽保險業務。此外,該股亦於香港經營再保險業務,和財產保險,具備內地保險股概念,但市值已達113億元,而且部分業務屬控股形式,買家併購時或會考慮如何達致協同效應的地方。

至於兩間主要從事一般保險業務的公司反而有購併空間。資產架構較「乾淨」的亞洲金融(662),該股昨日已因盈科保險賣盤消息刺激,逆市上升至3.25元,市值約34億元,與盈保出售價相若。該集團自出售銀行業務後,手頭坐擁資金,專注保險業務,但暫時主要持有亞洲保險,一間從事一般保險業務的公司,與盈保的人壽保險業務不同,但由於有足夠彈藥擴充,加上管理層有意拓展保險和醫療業務,故有機會在併購壯大業務後,獲買家垂青。民安(控股)(1389)可算是一隻新紮保險股,這間去年底掛牌的公司主要在港經營一般保險業務,股東之一就是長江實業(001),本身有權進軍內地保險市場,且日後可擴展至個人保險業務,無疑提供憧憬空間如李氏施展財技等。

人壽保險公司值錢的地方就是具備保單客戶基礎,定時交保費,為公司提供資金,因為收取一定保費後,除了部分資金需保留以符合法例要求,應付賠償需要外,其餘資金則可建立一個龐大的資產投資組合,藉此提升投資回報,故本身投資收入能力亦是關注重點。

盈保剛公布的業績便執得「靚靚」,差不多各營運指標均有增長,如全年純利增6.5倍,其中投資收入便因去年股市上升便大增1.4倍,故現時賣枱實屬良機,但母公司盈科拓展股東又會否像上次反對出售電訊盈科(008)般,再一次令李澤楷失望呢?

3月2日刊於《am730》

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我覺得投資中國人壽,有點投資中國A股,因為他們持有一定數量的A股,另外人民幣升值對2628是利好因素,想聽聽你的意見。

 
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