Tuesday, February 27, 2007

格老看美國經濟

雖然卸任多時,美國前任聯儲局主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)的言論仍受市場注視,但傳統以來,所謂一朝天子一朝臣,已落台官員說服力有多大值得商榷,分分鐘更可能是為接任者講好說話。雖然格老提出美國經濟周期已進入上升軌的末段,憂慮經濟放緩風險增加,更警告年底或陷入衰退,但又話當地樓市最壞情況已過去,經濟情況仍屬穩定,似乎叫大家要小心,但不用太擔心。

當然,名人說話自然還要有一些驚人預測方可吸引大家注意,退任近一年的他昨日透過視像會議向本港一個商業研討會發言,預期美國在未來3至5年間,息口會有一至兩厘的上升空間。他解釋面對全球化生產趨勢影響下,勞工成本必下跌,通脹自然處於低水平,所以現時沒有加息空間,但當東歐等地區的工資回升,全球化效應便會淡化,通脹威脅或會重臨,加息屆時再成為對抗通脹這頭經濟猛獸的最佳工具。

對於美國樓市走勢,格老似乎較樂觀,認為未見大泡沫,只有小泡沫出現,亦未見樓市放緩的影響擴散至其他領域。他更覺得美國雖有龐大貿易赤字,近年股市樓市投資增值均為國民帶來財富,有助維持強勁購買力,故貿赤未構成嚴重問題。不過,樓市回落已成定局,從近期美國金融股、建築類股份股價下跌便發現投資者先行一步,影響滯後出現。

經濟分析員又有何見解呢?美國商業經濟協會收集47位經濟分析員意見,發現他們對美國經濟持審慎看法,如當地樓市放緩令今年經濟增長僅2.7%,較去年放緩0.7個百分點,而且是5年來最細的增幅。調查又發現,估計今年通脹率約1.9%,較去年減慢1.3個百分點,反映通脹壓力紓緩,預期聯儲局年內維持息率不變,較原先估計今年或需減息兩次以刺激經濟為佳。格老和經濟分析員的意見均反映美國息口走勢趨穩,難怪早前有專家提出美元與日圓息差短期收窄機會不大,日圓套息活動自然更猖獗,資金續投入股市興風作浪,資產價值可望進一步提升。看看亞洲區股市如澳洲多次創新高,馬來西亞曾見10年高位,日本股市創近7年最高便知。

資源股趁機開車

伊朗局勢趨緊張,聯合國將開會研究,大戶趁政治消息炒賣。金價向每安士700美元,即去年5月高位挑戰,因已見689美元。銀價水漲船高創去年5月以來新高,每安士14.66美元,白金價升至3個月新高。材料有價,商品資源類股成焦點,靈寶黃金(3330)升9.3%、紫金礦業(2899)漲6.9%、湖南有色(2626)增6.4%,而江西銅業(358)彈8.3%,大家樂於配合「開車」。

這類商品已成炒賣工具,據美國商品期貨交易委員會統計顯示,直至上周五,主要由投機者持有的美國黃金好倉盤淨數進一步增加逾5,000張至12.99萬張,未平倉合約亦增加超過1.2萬張至39.6萬張,反映大量資金湧入,不可再視作純粹按供求關係上落,由於市場普遍認為資源價格仍有向上空間,相信這類股份短期仍受追捧,但商品價格走勢更趨複雜,意味該類股份波動情況亦會加劇。

至於中港兩地股市實欠驚喜。深滬股市豬年紅盤高收,雖然早段回落,但午後反彈,上海綜合指數更突破3,000點,收市報3,040.6點又創新高,升42.13點,增幅約1.4%,而深圳成分指數亦增16.42點至8,588.69點收市,兩地總成交達1385.6億元人民幣。

恒指則受中國移動(941)一隻跌2.65%拖累,挫203點至20,507點收市,成交約440億元,相信受期指結算活動影響,昨日成交便逾10萬張。

(2月27日刊於《am730》)

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