Thursday, March 01, 2007

散戶股災未重傷

財爺昨日派粒大糖,而且幾乎做到人人有份,永不落空,本應高興,但股市大幅回落,相信投資者又憂慮究竟後市走向,不禁令禤中怡想起周華健的名曲《讓我歡喜讓我憂》。港股雖然大幅下跌,缸邊朋友卻話散戶頗為鎮定,估計大家早料有此一著,畢竟歐美股市已大跌,昨日早上起床見到如斯場面也心知肚明,故未見急急「逃亡」,亦沒有不問價沽貨走人,加上去年斬獲不少,手上注碼充足,不擔心市況調整。

其實,證監會對孖展炒股加強監管後,證券行多數叫客戶用真金白銀炒賣,即使做孖展也看股份類別,如買滙豐控股(005),好客才有七成孖展率,一般有三四成已算高水平,所以斬頭貨罕見。大行朋友話有客戶做即日鮮「篤手指」,利用T加2交收的時間差,即使當日買入後蝕錢沽出,即日鮮客戶亦是支付差額,自然減少一次過「大拿拿」支付進出資金的壓力。他更話今次散戶無甚中招,最重要的是他們在新年前已不多炒賣窩輪,如昨日窩輪總成交才91億元,較去年11月11日的132億元回落31%,而大市成交比例更由24%跌至僅11%。至於一些窩輪熱情度亦減弱,如法興中交認購證(4789)的成交量由去年底的3,401萬股,逐步縮減至昨日僅88.6萬股,又好像恒指德銀707J(7603)於1月29日交投量達16.5億股,急降至昨日的8.9億股,除了有時間值因素外,料亦反映交投減少。此外,散戶參與炒賣的細價股和半新股在今次股災中的殺傷力有限,且在低位購入或於周一已沽貨,故「輸極有限」,相反有人已問是否見低位,屬入市好時機,或者低位入貨添!

《無間道》得米 《傷城》跟章
一齣《無間道風雲》在美國奧斯卡頒獎禮揚威耀武後,即時引發對香港電影光宗耀祖無限上綱的亢奮外,但原來還有下文。這齣電影的成功為香港電影界殺出一條新血路,就是「賣翹」,將電影版權出售予荷李活巨頭,然後改頭換面,轉為本土化製作,配合美國人口味,例如用美國人擔綱演出,加強親切感,票房勝算又高一籌,實行雙贏局面。

剛見到另一齣電影《傷城》又話獲美國時代華納公司(Time Warner Inc)看中,準備「食過番尋味」,繼買入《無間道》電影版權贏大獎後,將斥1,600萬港元加花紅購入這齣由梁朝偉和金城武主演的影片。對時代華納來說,收購金額認真「濕濕碎」,翻版投資模式的成功機會自然較大。其實當地電影業近年吸引不少投資者參與,甚至有基金專門投資電影製作,而由影星羅拔烈福創辦,在猶他州鹽湖城舉行的辛丹斯電影節更是美國最重要的獨立電影盛事,讓片商觀摩低成本的獨立電影。製作人若獲垂青,將電影排期在電影院上映或以DVD形式推出市面的話,分分鐘「刀仔鋸大樹」,回報以倍數計。

香港電影業能否藉此衝出香港就未知,但領導這股「賣翹」潮流的岳少(林建岳)終於可威威,更趁勢將擁有《傷城》版權的寰亞娛樂據為己有。因岳少將麗新系進行變身重組等一系列動作後,持有於新加坡上市的寰亞娛樂37.33%股權的豐德麗(571)提出每股0.265坡元(約1.35港元)將其私有化,即涉資最多約2億元,日後若有豐厚花紅便可全數佔有。

要私有化成功,當然要看淡,豐德麗話寰亞股價在過去兩個月遠低於招股價,且交投疏落。不過,看到直至06年底寰亞手持現金等流動資產達1.47億元,即岳少只需拿5,300萬元,再加上寰亞娛樂本身的手頭現金去支付私有化代價便可完成交易,認真懂計數。

(3月1日刊於《am730》)

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