Monday, March 12, 2007

巴菲特的管治理念

股神巴菲特(Warren Buffett)雖然作風非進取,如買入估值偏低股份等收成的做法,相信難受今日短線投資者所認同,但有時也有其可愛之處,最新舉動就是讓其巴郡(Berkshire Hathaway Inc)股東於股東大會投票決定投資策略,難怪巴郡獲美國財經雜誌《財富》(FORTUNE)選為全美最受人欣賞首20間公司(Most admired companies in America)中排名第四位。

事緣巴郡一名股東批評中國石油(857)在蘇丹境內資助迫害人權的行動,上月巴郡還特別於網站發出聲明辯護,指投資的是其母公司,但巴菲特一直未就此發表評論。不過,議題有持續延燒的跡象,談論氣氛愈來愈熱,巴菲特終開口說明決定將股東建議出售中石油的提議列入今年股東大會的議程。該股東認為美國總統已頒行政命令規範美國企業不能在海外從事一些特定活動,巴郡投資中石油等於間接違反政府法令。

股神亦「看穿」挑起這種事端的股東,形容其動機「可怕」,並揶揄該股東不同意中國政府,才要求巴郡沽出中石油股份,但這名股東卻又不沽出巴郡股票,暗示對方有目的而來。雖然明白其中的問題,難得的是股神仍肯同股東傾,但若果個別投資策略都要樣樣先徵求股東意見,整個營運過程必遭拖慢,相信股神想用投票展示其支持度。

市場亦估計沽售中石油的提案獲通過機會很微,因巴菲特持有約33%投票權,且大多數股東全都以股神馬首是瞻,他仍表明準備在股東會上,就此項股票投資進行辯護,包括解釋中石油與其母公司的關係,並稱不會就中石油投資問題設時限,大家隨時可以再討論,實行親民政策。需注意的是,巴郡目前擁有約23.47億股中石油股份,佔13.35%股權,屬第二大股東,以上周五收市價8.95元計,市值約210億元,故一旦議案真的獲通過,投資者就要注意巴郡或因沽售大量股份而為中石油添沽壓。

近幾年股神大增海外投資,如去年斥40億美元(約312億港元)投資以色列Iscar Metalworking及買入英國超市連鎖集團Tesco逾兩億股與三百多萬股南韓浦項鋼鐵等股份,未有固守在美國國內,這些投資是否牽涉有政治成份,相信難作猜測。但這種作風與香港有些上市公司比較算有交代,且看有些公司業務轉型又轉型,科網熱就做網站,澳門興起就提出濠江概念,資源緊張就開礦,做其股東根本無從監管兼無得傾,可能不知道公司真正經營的範圍,股東資金亦慘被隨意玩弄,遇著這種投機性公司,雖說有概念跟風成份,但風險卻不能不注意,如手上有這類股票的,禤中怡更建議沽售,避之則吉,否則連本都泡湯。

美次級貸款惹危機
甚麼是山雨欲來?且看美國次級貸款公司新世紀財務(New Century Financial)傳聞將宣布破產保護等消息拖累、借貸受限和停止接受新貸款申請等而令股價重挫25%。該公司向美國證監會披露舉債有困難,難怪股價上周五一日跌17%。所謂次級房貸就是指那些信用紀錄不太好的客户貸款。由於這類客戶收入相對較低或信用有問題,所以,一般貸款機構通常不願意提供房屋貸款。而次級房貸公司則為這類客户提供貸款,但自然亦會收取較高貸款利率。

在樓市好景時,大家樂於借錢炒樓或置業,但若果經濟放緩,資不抵債的情況可能出現,這類次級貸款公司的經營風險便相應增加,而向這些公司提供貸款的又是其他金融機構,試問會不會牽一髮而動全身呢?通用電氣旗下WMC按揭部門便可能要裁員460人,即20%人手,相信其他類似業務公司亦要加入檢查資產和縮減規模的同一命運,美股本周恐怕難有運行。

(3月12日刊於《am730》)

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