Wednesday, April 04, 2007

散戶識蝕唔識賺

投資講趨勢,像去年底有散戶朋友押錯注,以為恒指由18,000點抽上19,000點後,造淡「實無死」,集中火力投向沽輪,相信大家都知道結果是甚麼,恒指並非如他所料般下跌,反而節節向上,勢如破竹,穿20,000點輕而易舉。散戶朋友手上那批沽輪打靶多時,場面悲壯實難形容。

近日這位散戶朋友又向禤中怡求救,今次並非買錯貨,相反是「執到寶」,不知怎算好。原來朋友以前在高位買入公司N的股份,豈知公司N的股價逐步跌至幾粒神,朋友又溝貨,再買入一批貨,股價隨後江河日下,自然不捨得拋掉,唯有放入觀察名單內(即等變牆紙也!)。

未知是時來運到,抑或是眼光獨到,公司N突然轉型又轉型,更靠資源概念翻身,股價在短短數日內從幾粒神重越一元,之後氣勢如虹。朋友這下瘋了,手上有數十萬股,原來才值數萬元,竟像被魔術棒揮一揮,變成數十萬元,簡直連本帶利一併賺回來。可惜的是,朋友憂慮股價急升後,會出現顯著調整,多年「投資」恐打回原形,加上轉型始終存變數,故選擇沽出一半貨,先套現收回成本,等自己安心一下。問題來了,公司N股價之後依然升勢未停,朋友只見愈升愈有,開始擔心手上股票應如何處理,亦對之前沽出的大量股份而飲恨,皆因賺少數十萬元了。

朋友話,在金魚缸時,身邊的投資好友猛催他沽貨,因為既已賺錢,萬一股價下挫就慘了。更以「傻仔」稱呼朋友死抱不放。唉!禤中怡面對如斯場面,也不知怎說好,只會勸朋友若已收回成本,何不放長線釣大魚(假設公司N轉型成功),況且股價波動總難免,如果股價長升長有,試問港交所(388)怎會不請公司解畫呢?最壞情況是股價下跌,相信亦不過賺少一點罷了,但如業務真的落實,基本因素就不可同日而語,而且只見該股陸續有消息,「整個故事」似還未講完,建議持有無妨。這邊談完,朋友卻抵不住誘惑,沽出部分股份套現,因怕跌,並轉投另一隻消息股,及後又打電話來,告之那隻消息股「潛水」,公司N股價又升幾個價位,一來一回少收數萬元。這個投資經驗對很多散戶來說,是不是似曾相識呢?值得大家深思的是,究竟投資是要盡取最大利潤,還是見好就收呢?禤中怡相信最重要的是分析及隨機應變,所謂傳統投資策略,在這個金融市場不一定存在。

金榜有猛人加盟
恒指尾市「造上」20,002點收市,好友積極營造利好氣氛,成交未見增加,且在長假期前夕,傳統做隔夜盤較危險,因外圍波動時難脫身,相信獲利盤增多,恒指難企在高位。地產股表現較佳,太古A(019)升3.6%至92.95元,而新世界發展(017)亦升2.9%至18.18元收市。

新股當道,皆因中信1616(1883)首日對辦,富豪出名,幫手追逐新股亦加強散戶信心,日後股價升,互惠互利,又是那句:雙贏!談起名人效應,不能不提升幅最大股份:金榜集團(172)也,最高曾見0.77元,單日大幅上揚1.6倍至0.73元收市,成交金額5.8億元,交投儼如藍籌股般。這間公司從事融資、典當及物業投資等業務。為甚麼如此叫座呢?可能是王軍加盟做執董和主席吧!這位前北京中信集團主席仍任中信21世紀(241)主席,身份地位絕對顯赫,肯加入一間市值僅4.65億元(用前日收市價計)的二三線公司,單是猛人加盟這個因素便已有大量溢價,難怪吸引投資者追捧,合力將市值增至12億元。但王總為何肯放下身段呢?原來金榜行政總裁藍寧是中國保利集團前資深董事,與王總有淵源,總算真相大白。咦!中信銀行將在中港兩地上市,莫非大家炒金榜投資該行?

(4月4日刊於《am730》)

9 Comments:

At 11:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

褟中怡:
來意和Stephen一樣,看到你今早的文章,想给你一點支持和鼓勵,人生起跌有如股海中的波浪!我本人目前也正處於水深火熱之中,跟你一樣,是一個虔誠教徒,但信上帝!恰巧林以諾也答應為我祈禱!
我想给你分享一點信仰經歷,基督徒求的是與主同行,求衪按着旨意成就大事,即使結果與自己所想的不同,也要順服,相信主的恩典夠我們用,事實上,慈愛的主,從不會掉下衪的兒女不顧。
我們沒法祈求神蹟,但可以求主帶領我們走過死蔭的幽谷!
多抽時間陪伴父母,讓她認識主耶稣會背負我們走過人生每一步!將來也會在天上快樂地與衪同活!
願主保守你!當信主耶稣,你和你一家都必得救!為你和你媽媽禱告!

CY Ho

6:17 PM

禢中怡:

還記得第一次看到你媽媽的病情,答應為你和你媽媽禱告,我一直有這樣做。聽到你媽媽的病情好轉,真的感謝主,生命和財富都是帶不走的,看龔如心的一生,開心嗎?唯有認識創造者積財於天才是最佳投資!繼續記念你和你一家!

CY HO

 
At 8:53 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

longchamp handbags, michael kors outlet, prada outlet, burberry outlet, prada handbags, oakley sunglasses cheap, jordan shoes, tory burch outlet, nike shoes, michael kors outlet, gucci outlet, louboutin outlet, longchamp outlet, kate spade handbags, air max, nike free, coach outlet store online, ray ban sunglasses, louboutin, kate spade outlet, michael kors outlet, true religion jeans, tiffany and co, coach purses, louis vuitton, tiffany and co, oakley sunglasses, louboutin, ray ban sunglasses, louis vuitton outlet stores, burberry outlet, michael kors outlet, louis vuitton outlet, michael kors outlet, coach outlet, louis vuitton handbags, longchamp handbags, polo ralph lauren outlet, chanel handbags, michael kors outlet, christian louboutin shoes, oakley sunglasses, true religion jeans, louis vuitton outlet, coach factory outlet, air max, polo ralph lauren outlet

 
At 8:53 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

nike air max, sac louis vuitton, true religion outlet, abercrombie and fitch, sac louis vuitton, hollister, north face, nike free pas cher, sac longchamp, ray ban pas cher, air max, ray ban sunglasses, vanessa bruno, louis vuitton uk, mulberry, lululemon, sac guess, converse pas cher, michael kors, true religion outlet, michael kors, oakley pas cher, nike roshe run, polo lacoste, ralph lauren, sac burberry, nike free, michael kors pas cher, nike roshe, air max pas cher, louis vuitton, louboutin, nike tn, hogan outlet, air force, nike trainers, air jordan, longchamp, air max, polo ralph lauren, barbour, north face, hollister, timberland, nike blazer, sac hermes, vans pas cher, new balance pas cher

 
At 8:58 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

ugg australia, canada goose jackets, soccer shoes, ferragamo shoes, celine handbags, canada goose outlet, uggs outlet, mcm handbags, lululemon outlet, p90x, wedding dresses, canada goose, marc jacobs, asics running shoes, birkin bag, instyler, soccer jerseys, giuseppe zanotti, jimmy choo outlet, rolex watches, new balance shoes, ghd, chi flat iron, nike roshe run, north face jackets, mont blanc, mac cosmetics, babyliss pro, reebok outlet, ugg boots, ugg boots, insanity workout, hollister, vans shoes, beats by dre, ugg, bottega veneta, north face outlet, valentino shoes, ugg pas cher, nfl jerseys, herve leger, canada goose, canada goose, longchamp, canada goose uk, nike huarache, abercrombie and fitch

 
At 9:03 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

louboutin, moncler, montre homme, hollister clothing store, lancel, moncler, moncler, karen millen, vans, louis vuitton, parajumpers, moncler, juicy couture outlet, links of london, converse, air max, swarovski, supra shoes, thomas sabo, ray ban, pandora jewelry, converse shoes, oakley, canada goose, toms shoes, gucci, juicy couture outlet, pandora charms, pandora charms, swarovski crystal, moncler, rolex watches, coach outlet store online, wedding dresses, iphone 6 cases, moncler outlet, canada goose, moncler, air max, ralph lauren, baseball bats, ugg, timberland boots, hollister, hollister, ugg

 
At 1:44 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ninest123 10.19
prada handbags, oakley sunglasses wholesale, oakley sunglasses, cheap oakley sunglasses, christian louboutin outlet, uggs outlet, uggs outlet, michael kors outlet, christian louboutin uk, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet online, ray ban sunglasses, ugg boots, replica watches, polo outlet, uggs on sale, nike free, tory burch outlet, louis vuitton, christian louboutin, burberry outlet, gucci handbags, michael kors outlet, christian louboutin shoes, burberry handbags, replica watches, tiffany and co, louis vuitton outlet, jordan shoes, longchamp outlet, louis vuitton, michael kors outlet store, michael kors outlet online, oakley sunglasses, chanel handbags, tiffany jewelry, kate spade outlet, louis vuitton outlet, ugg boots, nike air max, nike air max, longchamp outlet, longchamp outlet, prada outlet, ray ban sunglasses, nike outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet online, ray ban sunglasses

 
At 1:46 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

timberland pas cher, north face, sac vanessa bruno, nike roshe run uk, hollister pas cher, coach outlet, ray ban pas cher, jordan pas cher, longchamp pas cher, michael kors, nike roshe, vans pas cher, lululemon canada, polo lacoste, nike air force, nike air max, nike blazer pas cher, true religion jeans, true religion outlet, nike free run, ralph lauren uk, nike free uk, mulberry uk, coach outlet, new balance, ray ban uk, nike tn, true religion outlet, guess pas cher, michael kors outlet, abercrombie and fitch uk, sac hermes, true religion outlet, oakley pas cher, nike air max uk, coach purses, air max, burberry pas cher, michael kors pas cher, louboutin pas cher, michael kors, north face uk, converse pas cher, nike air max uk, kate spade, polo ralph lauren, sac longchamp pas cher, hollister uk, hogan outlet, coach outlet store online

 
At 1:47 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ray ban, ralph lauren, hollister clothing, lululemon, mac cosmetics, mcm handbags, babyliss, longchamp uk, reebok outlet, converse, celine handbags, beats by dre, herve leger, timberland boots, nike trainers uk, vans, louboutin, baseball bats, insanity workout, north face outlet, iphone 6 cases, gucci, nfl jerseys, hollister, vans outlet, soccer jerseys, nike roshe run, north face outlet, instyler, abercrombie and fitch, converse outlet, mont blanc pens, chi flat iron, p90x workout, ghd hair, giuseppe zanotti outlet, oakley, jimmy choo outlet, ferragamo shoes, nike air max, nike huaraches, new balance shoes, hermes belt, wedding dresses, hollister, asics running shoes, bottega veneta, soccer shoes, nike air max, valentino shoes, oakley sunglasses, louis vuitton outlet

 
At 1:48 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

doudoune moncler, canada goose, pandora uk, pandora charms, wedding dresses, doke gabbana, karen millen uk, michael kors handbags, lancel, michael kors outlet, moncler, louis vuitton, canada goose outlet, louis vuitton, louis vuitton, louis vuitton, moncler outlet, canada goose jackets, moncler, moncler outlet, links of london, hollister, canada goose uk, ugg uk, toms shoes, replica watches, barbour, pandora jewelry, juicy couture outlet, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, canada goose, moncler, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, louis vuitton, coach outlet, michael kors outlet online, juicy couture outlet, canada goose outlet, ugg pas cher, swarovski crystal, canada goose, thomas sabo, supra shoes, swarovski, barbour uk, moncler, moncler uk, canada goose outlet, ugg, pandora jewelry, marc jacobs, montre pas cher
ninest123 10.19

 

Post a Comment

<< Home