Friday, May 11, 2007

藍籌要有加有減

藍籌股音樂椅又響起,因為恒指服務公司於今日收巿後,將公布季度檢討,大家又要尋寶,市場估平安保險(2318)、招商銀行(3968)及中國海外發展(688)很大機會納入恒指,3隻熱門股備受追捧,股價齊逆市上升。

平保昨日一度高見46.45元,收市仍升2.3%至45.75元,再創新高,以H股計,市值已達1,170.5億元,又多一隻大笨象,相信可以打入20大藍籌之一。至於招行亦曾創出21.7元上巿新高,收市仍報21.3元,升3.65%,表現更突出,但按H股計市值才567億元,未夠平保大隻。或許加入藍籌機會較微,市值710.7億元的中國海外昨日只升0.38%至10.5元。

若果該3隻股份染藍,而恒指服務公司不踢走一些表現未符理想的成分股,即會令總數增至41隻,更代表金融類藍籌佔指數比重進一步擴大。上次於2月初公布加入中國工商銀行(1398)和中國人壽(2628)時,金融類成分股比重已由34.48%大增至39.88%,恐怕今次再加兩隻內地金融股後,破40%容易不過,而表面看,成分股數目增多,以往批評香港恒生指數太倚重一兩隻重磅股包括滙豐控股(005)和中國移動(941)的聲音相信會絕跡,而加入國企股後,的確有分散投資比重作用,令這個衡量市場整體變化的指數更具指標作用。但凡事有兩面,現在恒指成分股已逐漸變成祖國成分股,究竟恒指與香港的經濟氣候還有多大關係,根本不用多講。

不過,既然要加強恒指認受性,就更應該去蕪存菁,像電訊盈科(008)市值才333億元,中遠太平洋(1199)和裕元工業(551)市值亦僅逾400億元,是否應考慮更換一些更具代表性的股份呢?因電訊市場已全面開放,電盈已非一間全港獨大的企業,且香港電訊行業前景亦非秀麗,退出的影響著實不大。至於玖龍紙業(2689)市值近700億元,足可換裕元了,而剛掛牌的碧桂園(2007)市值更達1,138億元,染藍亦合理,畢竟民營企業也有「大隻佬」的。而從一個投資賓架的角度而言,港股一片紅,證明香港在經濟上依靠中國的現實,香港本土特色正逐漸褪色,對香港的特殊經濟地位是好是壞,則並非三言兩語能說清。

中移動除息累大市
大市方面,一如所料美聯儲局維持利率不變,港股又失方向,恒指在20,683至20,821點之間上落,收市報20,746點,微跌98點,成交額增至614億元。股市下跌多少與中移動昨日除息有關,因扣除末期股息令指數相應調整。中移動昨跌0.16%至71.95元。

即月期指在現貨巿場收巿後繼續回落,低水幅度擴大至117點,收巿報20,629點,跌93點。由於缺乏利好消息,不少大藍籌也升得七七八八,的確為淡友製造機會,趁難挑戰高位之際,先推低指數,然後再睇後市去向。

大劉隻華人置業(127)更失驚無神,本來上午走勢「頗靚」,一路升上11.72元,怎知下午回來卻停牌,原因撲朔迷離,話私有化!事件認真敏感,因英國對沖基金TCI持有該股約7.86%股權,該基金最喜歡「指手劃腳」,連領匯(823)的蘇慶和也要掛冠而去,就知道這個兒童基金的厲害之處。禤中怡認為將股份除牌機會微,相信大劉等關連人士或增持股份,進一步鞏固其大股東地位,避免有人攝到位,故此技術上不能不向所有股東提出自願收購建議。TCI會否售華置股份就未知,只知續在香港掃貨,原來自4月底至今不斷增持華電國際(1071)股份,兼愈買愈多。自4月30日增持580萬股後,本月3和4日又買710萬和2,000萬股,股權增至10.53%。有此雄厚背景的股東,股價當然要配合,昨日就即彈8%至貼近全日最高位收市,報3.77元。

(5月11日刊於《am730》)

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