Thursday, May 10, 2007

內地B股也瘋狂

內地股市升勢未遏,滬深股市雙雙創歷史新高,總成交額超過3,800億元人民幣,創紀錄已成家常便飯。上海證券綜合指數更破4,000點,高見4,015.22點歷史新高後,收市報4,013點,上漲1.6%。深圳證券成分股指數以11,517點收市,升1%。不過,最厲害的始終是B股市場。前日幾乎全線漲停的滬深B股,昨日續大幅上揚。上海證券B股指數和深圳證券成分股B股指數更分別大升6.88%和3.83%。

為甚麼B股突然發力,升幅更跑贏A股呢?原來股民湧入B股也。從中國證券登記結算資料顯示,黃金周假期後首個交易日,即本月8日竟然有高達1.66萬個新開B股戶口,較上月30日新開逾6,900個戶口比較,大增近1萬個,而再看多一點的資料,可以發現上月23日,新開B股戶口數目才1,800多個,但之後每日新增戶口數目卻逐步遞增,而整個4月計,新增B股户口才不過3.65萬個,但假期後首個交易日的新增數字已相等於上月新增總數的45%,可見參與的投資者數目大幅上升,當然他們是買貨為主,試問在瘋狂買盤湧入下,B股指數怎會不被抽高!

B股的正式名稱是人民幣特種股票,以人民幣標明面值,以外幣認購和買賣,在上海和深圳證券交易所上市交易的外資股。B股公司註冊地和上市地點都在內地,初期投資者來自境外或港澳台,01年開放內地居民可投資B股。內地個人投資者除了進行一般登記手續外,只需從外匯資金帳戶向證券公司的B股保證金帳戶,轉入資金最低金額為1,000美元(約7,800港元)便可,沒有任何數量限制。

內地日前傳出中國人民銀行(央行)或於下周將外匯存款準備金率調高1個百分點,由4%增至5%,亦可能是觸發新一輪B股升浪的原因。不要小看那1個百分點,以直至3月底,目前在內地金融機構所持有的外匯存款總值約1,648.8億美元(約1.28萬億港元),即銀行要扣起存款的1%以符合央行的規定,已令市場即時抽走16億美元(約124.8億港元),而且若真的執行,意味央行陸續有來。

簡單來看,當貨幣供應收縮,的確可以有助壓抑投資,但今次並非利用息口向上,希望趕市場的外匯游資進入銀行體系內,若果市場對B股需求不減的話,大家自然會懂得轉方向,炒個不亦樂乎,即只會將股價愈推愈高。最重要的是,內地法人機構除了政府有關部門批准之外,其他內地企業不能投資B股,即監管控制或少一點,試問內地股民面對A股大幅攀升,兼監管日嚴情況下,怎不轉投B股懷抱,就算要找外匯投入市場,相信絕對難不倒這群饑餓的投資者。

至於深圳交易所昨日終於又出招,主要針對近期不斷有上市公司提出,利用公司的閒資參與新股認購以及其他證券投資,深交所頒布的新指引,明確規定上市公司不得把發行股票籌集所得資金,或銀行信貸資金用作證券投資,意味進一步收緊投入股市的資金,希望上市公司使用資金發展核心業務,並希望上市公司建立健全內部控制的制度,董事會應慎重作出證券投資決策,嚴格控制投資風險,即要控制目前A股瘋狂情況。

此外,深交所又對上市公司與證券分析師和媒體溝通、以非正式公告方式向外界提供信息等行為作出規範提出新指引,要求上市公司對傳聞調查、核實後編寫澄清公告,對於相關機構或個人造謠、誤導性報道、誤導性分析而產生傳聞的,應公開表明公司立場和觀點,意味監管當局已留意「消息股」的影響。不過,講到口水乾的風險問題,恐怕內地股民會聽不入耳。

(5月10日刊於《am730》)

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