Wednesday, May 09, 2007

亢奮中的投資策略

香港恒生指數日前創歷史新高,兼且曾破21,000點,的確令人憧憬再戰更高水平。再將眼光放遠,環顧全球股市,原來均處亢奮局面。

先說亞洲股市。內地股市昨日復市,便表演一場「大合奏」,各指數貼近高收,其中以外資投資為主的B股最厲害,部分指數單日最高升9%。至於南韓、澳洲股市亦曾創歷史新高。

美國股市就不用多說,道瓊斯指數愈升愈有,今年以來已累積上升6.8%!不過,若果看看近期英國富時100指數(FTSE100),大家可能發現原來該指數今年以來已亦累積上升6.1%之多!

造成歐美股市居高不下這種現象,與公司業績大幅向上,盈利表現佳,自然令衡量估值的市盈率(PE Ratio)相應下降有關,意味股價較以往便宜,為大市向上帶來催化劑作用。

另一個更重要的原因,可能是成分股內的公司價值進一步被體現而反映在股價所致。同樣以英國富時100指數為例,直至目前為止,該指數內最少已有4間大型企業收到收購建議,包括建築材料供應商HANSON、唱片公司EMI,資訊服務供應商路透(REUTERS)和超級市場連鎖企業MORRISON。若果買家要奪得心頭好,提出的收購作價定必要比公布收購建議當日股價有一定溢價,方可吸引這些企業的股東舉手,支持有關交易,像欲購路透的Thomson出價便有13%溢價。這種舉動定必令這些被垂青的公司股價水漲船高,令股價上升,拉近與收購作價之間的溢價距離,而這些成分股股價向上,變相為指數提供上升動力。

或許有人會問,4間公司就可抽高指數?禤中怡認為最重要是提供一個氣氛,讓投資者繼續尋寶,而這種情況在美國股市亦可見端倪,因為當地已公布的收購合併交易建議,單單均屬巨額,即大deal也,像新聞集團出價購道瓊斯的390億港元交易,市場自然會重新審視其他傳媒股一樣,對股市構成利好作用。

經過長時間的牛市,兼且各地股市已見新高後,投資應該朝那個方向走呢?

首先,利好因素不俗,看亞洲和歐美的企業普遍有生意做,雖然美國存在次級按揭問題,連汽車銷售都話受次級按揭問題影響,美國其他經濟數據仍不俗,並預期聯儲局按兵不動,維持息率不變。歐洲方面,全球第三大經濟強國德國於4月亦出現消費者信心指數止跌回升的局面,反映整體市民消費意欲頗佳,意味出口和內需都有一定支持。

至於利淡因素方面,大家必定顧慮美國經濟能否軟著陸、而通脹惡化、經濟回落的同時,油價卻回升,會否產生滯脹(Stagflation)的可能。

禤中怡認為,現時最好是進一步分散投資,將股票和債券投資比例重新考慮,兼重新審閱自己的投資組合。畢竟股市已累積一定升幅,但因擔心「有一日」股市大幅度下挫而完全退出,就等如因噎廢食,即擔心「鯁親」就不進食,最終自然餓死,所以不妨將手上注碼分開兩筆投資,第一筆繼續保留作長線投資,不應隨便受大市短暫波動而改變,享受逐級向上的增值,而持有的這筆資金或可稱為「老本」,故不可隨便動用。

至於另一筆則可考慮調撥閒餘資金,用作考考眼光的投資注碼,因為指數愈處高位,波動便愈大,還記得年初恒指見20,000點後,於短短三個月蒸發了1,500點嗎?若果能夠靈活處理,進可攻、退可守,惟需嚴守止蝕,更要清楚知道自己的風險承擔能力。

(5月9日刊於《am730》)

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