Monday, May 14, 2007

QDII登陸後H股會……

內地送大禮,香港人接到手軟。送完熊貓後,上周內地中國銀行業監督管理委員會(銀監會)公布合資格境內機構投資者(QUALIFIED DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS,QDII)新政策,准許將內地投資者的資金投放海外市場,當中自然包括港股。好了,新錢終湧來,如果你是內地投資者,又會買甚麼貨呢?禤中怡預料會選購自己熟悉的公司股份,皆因與生活息息相關,投資做決定也容易得多,所以中資股必受惠。此外,大家有否發現,自從A股升到不亦樂乎之際,與本港H股股價之間的差距已出現明顯變化,由以往H股股價高於A股股價,變成現時不少A股比H股還有溢價,簡單而言,就是A股貴過H股!

不要以為差距只有數十個巴仙,原來南京熊貓(553)的A股比H股貴3.13倍!近來炒重組的儀征化纖(1033)雖然H股股價大升,但其A股仍高2.7倍。至於備受追捧的中資金融股的A、H股之間的差價則相對「近一點」(其實也不太合理)。剛登陸兩地股市的中信銀行(998),其A股溢價約86%。兩間內地保險龍頭股中國人壽(2628)和平安保險(2318)的A股溢價則有59%和41%。不過,已在A股打滾多年的招商銀行(3968),H股僅低6.2%而已。

所謂水向低流,當知道可以用更便宜的價格購入同一樣東西,資金自然會走向價格較低的地方,就像超市做特價,還會去7仔買嗎?

不過,問題又來了,恒指已創新高,若果最終因此消息而像內地股市升個不亦樂乎,大家必期望愈升愈有,但需注意香港與內地的金融制度有所不同,香港的資金進出容易,即所謂「熱錢」湧入易過借火,倘中資股狂升,熱錢又可以獲利平倉,瞬間即逝,內地資金能支撐嗎?此外,QDII主要由機構投資者負責,意味發行人需向投資者交代,如果中資股股價急升,機構投資者又會不會不計數,隨便追捧買貴貨呢?所謂「一幣有兩面」,有錢投資港股絕對是好消息,但也要注意風險,禤中怡認為除注意H股外,能夠與QDII建立生意關係的金融股亦不容忽視,因為這種服務才有長遠效益。

屋苑生意難做
做屋苑管理的,經常面對業主立案法團的挑戰,皆因法團內的成員多為業主,定必著緊自己物業的環境和狀況對樓價的影響。最近禤中怡同朋友見面,見到他手持一份很詳盡的會議紀錄,原來是一個土瓜灣區住宅的業主立案法團會議紀錄,好奇一看,竟然發現有一宗有趣的事件。

該會議紀錄引述,有法團成員提出在新春期間,擺放在物業內的一株桃花竟然在大部分時間都沒有開花,這種情況難以接受,畢竟在農曆新年,大家自然希望「花開富貴」,奈何桃花不開,豈不大煞風景兼意頭不佳!負責有關園藝的公司代表自然要列席解話,指可能在運送途中出現問題,甚至在剪枝插枝過程中發生問題,更承諾不收取該株桃花的費用,即時少收逾1,500元!

難得的是,該委員話非託詞不付買花之費用,純粹希望桃花盛開,意味大家都大富大貴!隨後又有委員話其實部分年花質素一般。難得的是,園藝公司代表亦相當識做,知道他們的心意,跟隨表白心意,願意除了不收取剛才那株桃花的費用外,更準備向各座物業送贈其他花卉作為補償,來一個大方落台,至於這宗生意少賺多少就不得而知,但可謂賠了夫人又折兵,下次和屋苑做生意都要小心點。

(5月14日刊於《am730》)

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