Monday, May 21, 2007

破壞容易興起難

溫總講得出就要做,一聲採取「綜合措施」加強調控,加上李超人幫忙開口話內指股市有泡沫,中國人民銀行立即「做嘢」,又加息,又加存款準備金率,更向美國拋媚眼,將人民幣兌美元匯價的波幅,從每日0.3%,擴大至0.5%,完全滿足老外的要求,實行一家便宜兩家著。

不過,面對加存款息的同時,又將人民幣升值預期提高,禤中怡擔心引發新一輪資金湧入潮。由於外資預期人民幣進一步向上,或許會選擇加快入市,若沒有合適投資用途時,只好將流入的資金泊入銀行內,等待時機,因為盡快流入市場避免日後升值令成本加重。況且存款息已上升,資金仍可收取更高存款利息,「機會成本」(opportunity cost)不致太大。

果真如此,最終或引致資金更過剩,甚至經濟過熱情況,央行一直擔心的流動資金過剩問題未有解決。禤中怡忽發奇想,擴大人民幣匯價波幅,會否引起市場關注會否觸發新一輪「套息交易」,實行借日圓,買入人民幣呢?因為人民幣匯價向上相信已成共識,贏面較大,金融大鱷也許會看此點,希望財經專家能解答這種可能性有多大。

至於內地股市會否被這些宏調措施所嚇怕呢?禤中怡認為銀行抽走市場資金以符合規定,已屬市場預期之內,調高貸款息率幅度亦不算大,倘內地堅決執行禁止借錢炒股票,大戶散戶拿著真金白銀炒股票,就更加根本不受這些措施影響。

更重要的是,內地成功令股市擺脫熊市,重踏升軌,絕對不是一件容易的事,而投資者有錢賺,怨氣自然少,儘管大市升得急,甚至有泡沫,但相信內地領導心底裡亦希望保持局面穩定,故不會貿然急叫股市「剎車」,因為破壞現時大市氣氛十分容易,但隨時讓散戶蝕個血本無歸,可能引發暴動,這是內地政府最不想見到的。相信除了加快排洪(如用QDII投資海外)或加強上述宏調措施外,應研究如何讓投資工具多元化,避免側重股市一途。禤中怡更憂慮出現售股買樓的話,固定資產價格又掀新升浪,令通脹這頭猛獸復甦的話,民怨又升溫。

超市中伏
美國聯邦儲備局前局長格林斯潘曾講過,已是市場預期之內的風險,其實並不算風險,反而大家沒有預期的未知風險才是最大的風險。如97年亞洲金融風暴,往往是突然而來,防不勝防,估不到在現實生活中就體現出來。禤中怡昨晚吃得滿足,自然和小豬媽來個夜遊(night walk),幫助消化。不經不覺,行到一間大型連鎖超級市場,很自然地走入去,看看有甚麼特價貨。本來無甚看頭,買食物意欲不大,但突然「嘩!」一聲,原來小豬媽差點跣倒,的確驚險,但再看清楚,就更是不得了,她竟然踩著「地雷」,糞便也!試想像一下,在街上行走,遇到這種場面已不可原諒,只好當自己不好彩,但怎會想到在超市內會碰上這種悲壯的場面!莫非有人對超市不滿,實行大報復?

小豬媽恐怕已非第一個受害者,超市員工也不知如何是好,禤中怡只好叫他們立即封起該範圍,避免再有人「中招」,並查問有否沖洗設施,奈何他們卻道那些水龍頭只洗食物,廁所亦不能用。有位太太在旁邊嚷著:「咁都得,快啲拍低佢啦!」。禤中怡要求找經理,但經理只望一望,就知道她不會有任何協助。事件讓禤中怡明白有些風險是不可控制的,在太平盛世日子也要保持警覺,但更重要的是,要學習危機處理,避免真的踩中「地雷」時,像超市那些職員般不知所措兼推搪了事。

(5月21日刊於《am730》)

11 Comments:

At 12:46 AM, Blogger NG said...

這種事應該拍片放上youtube.com等多些知道...

 
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中意你的BLOGGER.

 
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