Tuesday, May 22, 2007

小心挾好倉

港股續先開高後低收,恒指始終在21,000點附近徘徊,大戶咬住高位,不想指數掉頭向下,其實除了內地股市狂飆,擔心泡沫爆破外,暫未見太負面的消息影響大市。不過,指數企在高位多時,再看現貨月期指未平倉合約又增加1.2萬張,累積倉量已增加至12.9萬張,淡友相信已積聚一定力量,蠢蠢欲動,大家要小心挾好倉,推低指數。


不過,央行宏調三寶未有讓中港股民卻步,本港上市的中資金融股表現略差,內地六行中有四行被推低,中信銀行(998)急挫1.61%至6.13元收市;中國銀行(3988)跌1.26%至3.93元、中國工商銀行(1398)和建設銀行(939)分別挫1.17%和1.03%至4.22元和4.81元。能夠倖幸免的只有招商銀行(3968)收市無升跌;可能獲滙豐增持股權的交通銀行(3328)收市報升0.47%至8.61元。李四叔叫人買中資銀行股,夠膽搏嗎?


由於兩地指數照升,看似無甚問題,更加令人不安,但另一邊的創業板股份就更「㷫烚烚」,新利軟件(8076)單日就升2.5倍!收市報0.49元,當然成為全日升幅之首,成交額有127.9萬元,公司話首季虧損大幅由200萬元人民幣收窄至50萬元人民幣,就可以有如斯表現?至於第二和第三大升幅股份為易寶(8086)和中國3C集團(8153),難怪有資深投資者慨嘆,金魚缸始終吸引想在短時間內發大財的投資者。


另一隻叫人較「驚喜」的就是城市電訊(1137)。該股中期業績對辦,轉虧為盈兼派中期股息4仙,顯示主席王維基(Ricky)對後市有信心,因為手頭批10年期債券值9.52億元,每年利息支出逾8,000萬元,現金總額則僅5億多元,定必要預期未來業務現金流強勁,還要計算對手出招的影響。公司股價昨日即彈升38%至2.19元,成交股數亦由上周五的百多萬股,大增至昨日的2,122萬股,成交額4,381萬元。該集團主要將營運開支大減就成功獲利,昨日更重新包裝其收費電視服務迎戰,簽兩年約,月費168元,更送Wii遊戲機,一於貫徹Gimmick為先的做法,部Wii街價要2,000元,即實質月費半價,不過看得收費電視者,都應該對電視內容有要求,或想收看特定內容(如球賽或新聞等),可預期這些客戶應是家庭裡的核心成員(即負責開支嗰位),應該是比較成熟及已具有一定消費能力的,他們會不會為部遊戲機而看收費電視呢?相信殺價超人亦心裡有數,只是形勢比人強,出招還是有必要的。


中國的財經謀略智慧
中國外匯儲備1.2萬億美元,拿些少做風險較高的投資並不為過。負責投資的國家外匯投資公司估不到頭炮就豪拋30億美元(其實只佔其外匯儲備總額的0.25%而已)買美國私募基金黑石集團(Blackstone Group)一批股份,果然氣勢萬千。人家(黑石集團)同時發行1.333億股,每個單位最貴31美元,集資最高約41.3億美元,如加上國家外匯投資公司入股金額,等如幫人將集資額增至71.3億美元,試問傾成這單deal的負責人是不是應錫佢一大啖!前財政司長梁錦松任黑石大中華區主席,你話無份傾都好難令人信服。


英國《金融時報》著名專欄《Lex》一語道破這單deal的作用:巨額投資私募基金,放棄投票權和一年內不投資其他私募基金,就可認識更多朋友和影響其他人。為甚麼不直接交筆錢讓黑石投資呢?相信內地政府高層從政治層面考慮,本周美國財政部長保爾森(Henry Paulson)和中國副總理吳儀會面外,相信發覺入股黑石帶來的資本增值和日後分紅回報可觀,好搵過黑石幫你投資,否則純粹討好美國政客而大拋銀彈,回報卻不成正比,日後怎交代?



(5月22日刊於《am730》)

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