Wednesday, March 29, 2006

泰國總理與名嘴之爭

泰國總理他信富有早已聞名南洋,他家族擁有的秦納瓦集團,旗下的流動電話公司,是全泰國唯一能夠覆蓋全國的流動電話公司,而且還擁有衛星公司、傳媒以及泰國亞洲航空,全部都是在政治上很敏感的行業。由於他的家族企業,被指是他信的政治工具,他信為了避嫌,就將家族企業出售。

他信出售家族企業原意是好,因為家族經營的業務,十居其九會涉及政策層面的問題,官商勾結的問題可以搞到他信水洗都唔清。問題是,智者千慮,必有一失,但好失唔失,偏偏失在揀錯淡馬錫控股做買家。淡馬錫控股是新加坡政府全資擁有的公司,近日杜拜政府買了美國六個港口搞出政治風波,當初新電信(SingTel)想收購香港電訊(Cable & Wireless HKT,電盈(008)的前身),都惹來甚多閒言閒語。更何況他信將電訊、傳媒、衛星等給新加坡政府企業。

當地的名嘴林明達利用這點,指他信想將泰國賣給新加坡,激起不少泰國人的愛國心,加上他信出售家族企業時,又鑽法律漏洞,不單避過外資公司不得控制電訊公司超過一半股權的規定,而且連稅都不用給,結果激怒大批民眾上街,他信要解散國會,要學日本首相小泉純一郎,和反對派在選票上決勝負。

不過,最有趣的是,林明達本來是他信的盟友。林明達本身擁有當地很受歡迎的報章《經理報》(Phujtakam Daily),又在國營電台有主持政論節目。一直以來,林明達都差不多是他信的喉舌,林明達本人固然一直很維護他信,《經理報》亦經常有他信的內閣成員投稿。

不過,因愛成恨是好得人驚的一件事。自林明達與他信關係,被傳因一些利益擺不平而惡化後,林明達便經常在電視節目上抨擊他信政府貪污舞弊,而一向崇拜李光耀強勢作風的他信,亦決定封林明達的咪。

做得名嘴,那怎會如此容易因他信封咪而投降,林明達在被封咪後,每周都在泰國一間大學的空地做節目,大爆他信內幕。由於林明達手頭堅料多,吸引好多人去聽,搞得要移師市中心廣場做節目,亦令曼谷等都會地區,反對他信的人越來越多。而在他信將家族企業賣給淡馬錫控股後,林明達更乘勢發動反政府示威。由於他已經儼如反對派的領導者,他說不定還有機會成為內閣閣員,以至總理。

所以政治人物如果屢行不義,又得罪有群眾力量支持的名嘴,肯定會煩到抽筋。這要看林明達張嘴勁,還是他信的權術了得。這兩個有錢佬之間的惡鬥,肯定有排玩。

滙控地位未動搖
恒生指數連升9日,上周五升44點,收報15,856點。表現一直較為呆滯的滙控(005)終再次突破130元,上升1%,收131.8元,守穩130元水平,出售3.9%印度銀行股權並不是股價上升的原因。滙控將於3月6日宣布業績,每股純利大約1.3美元。

以周五收市價計,市盈率不足13倍。06年的純利應較佳,保守估計每股盈利增長約9%,市盈率更跌至12倍,現價仍十分吸引。佔恒指30%的滙控,對指數當然有一定影響力。

滙豐的股價早前停滯不前,可能受制於歐洲及美國市場的增長放緩,例如市場一直擔心美國市場爆破。從正面看,美國最近的經濟仍然看不到有大幅衰退的情況,一些指標更指經濟十分健康,而利率升勢放緩亦有助舒緩過度借貸的美國消費者。

為了增加本身的競爭力,滙豐早前增加了其投資銀行的投資,不過明顯投資銀行取向及文化與滙豐本身有著大不同。雖然早前集團代表Mittal Steel收購競爭對手Arcelor,及作為Eon收購Endesa的顧問,但這兩單交易不一定代表集團已成功發展這業務。

05年上半年投資銀行只佔總銀行盈利1%,看來滙豐英國紳士型銀行家的作風,還是較適合繼續發展傳統銀行業務。

未來50%的世界需求增長將會來自新興國家,而集團最近亦積極發展中國,印度,墨西哥,以及巴西的業務。收購Household後,未來消費者信貸的平台將可應用於這些國家。匯豐在國內已收購平保(2318),上海銀行等等,未來在上海應可取得優勢。雖然最近國企股升勢如火如荼,但對於穩健的投資者來說,滙豐仍是其中一間最佳的公司。

回購股份的啟示
本港上市公司過去一直獲容許在某個限期內回購股份,但現行造法是所回購股份必須即時註銷,假設公司已發行股本為100萬股,公司在市場購入其一萬股後,公司已發行股本相應下降至99萬股。該方法的最大好處是直接令每股盈利相對提升,但亦可能存在大股東毋須付出一分一毫情況下,股權「無端端」上升。

至於滙控則因應英國公司法修例,可以回購股份,但毋須即時註銷,改為庫存股份,這種做法其實於美國早已存在。至於滙控這種回購新方法已於去年股東大會獲批准,但港交所(388)上周才批准有關豁免權,最多可達已發行股本的10%。當然,回購股份變得更彈性,滙豐優秀的管理層便可發揮作用,因為他們可選擇將庫存股份出售套現、按僱員認股計劃轉讓庫存股份,或最終仍作註銷。

若果滙控股價低殘,滙控管理層可藉此低價買入,待好市時出售獲利,或者看好股價的話,倒不如先購入股份,應付管理人員行使認股權時,需在市場高價買入,或發行股份攤薄股東權益。以滙控已發行股本約113.6億股計,按上周五收市131.8元計,假若回購11.36億股上限,涉資便最高達1,497億元!試問有那條「水喉」可比?

不要小覷回購股份的力量。資料顯示,1987 年10 月美國股市爆發股災,當時在短短兩個星期之內,竟有多達650間公司公布回購股份計劃,花旗集團更宣布回購公司2.5億美元(約19.5億港元)的股票,對穩定股價和增強市場信心帶來積極作用。

今日回購股份更普遍,單以2004 年計,美國標準普爾500 指數成份股中,用於回購股票的金額便高達1,970 億美元(1.53萬億港元),比2003年增長高達50%。當然,回購股份屬技術性操作,何時買入、賣出,也是一種技巧。

(27-02-06 刊於《am730》)

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